House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has been on the offensive within Congress’s lower chamber ever since Democrats lost the majority there in 2022.
In a letter announcing his bid to lead House Democrats then, Jeffries acknowledged the urgency to do so.
“Our top non-governmental priority, for the sake of the American people, must be retaking the majority in November 2024,” Jeffries wrote. “It has sometimes been said that the job of the majority is to govern, while the job of the minority is to get back into the majority.”
Jeffries will look to “get back into the majority” through his home state of New York.
“You know what’s interesting, here in New York, we have four or five seats that are in play,” Jeffries told MSNBC’s Morning Joe in a July 31 interview. “We can win the House back in New York state alone, another five in California, and then, of course, others spread out all across the country.”
It won’t be easy. Because of a poor 2022 performance in the state, Democrats lost four House seats, including several in Democratic-leaning districts. The election cost the party a trifecta of House, Senate, and White House control.
Their abysmal 2022 performance could have had something to do with a high-ranking New York official who ran a shockingly close race in New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). She underwhelmed in typically deep-blue New York, capturing 53.2% of the statewide vote in her gubernatorial election against then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, who got 46.8%.
Hochul hasn’t grown more popular since then. Her approval rating is just 38%, and a union leader told Politico at the Democratic National Convention that Hochul may face a primary challenge “to prevent a Republican from taking over New York state government.”
Hochul is also involved in a considerable scandal involving one of her former aides working as an undisclosed foreign agent for China — an aide who got close enough to the governor to advise her on several Asian-related issues.
While Hochul isn’t on the ballot yet, voters could associate the scandal with state Democrats as a whole, potentially hurting them in downballot races. New York Mayor Eric Adams, another prominent Democrat, is also facing several FBI investigations into members of his administration, which have caused a few to resign.
But New York political strategist Lawrence Levy told the Washington Examiner that he isn’t too concerned about Democrats’ chances in the state. He says Vice President Kamala Harris’s presence on the ballot should reinvigorate their chances in suburban swing districts and in districts with large numbers of black voters.
There are indications that there’s energy in New York for Harris — she’s polling better than President Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race. According to Siena College poll ending June 17, Biden only had an 8-point lead in the state, but in a poll ending Aug. 1, Harris had a 14-point lead over Trump.
Levy also noted that the surge should allow Democrats to allocate money to districts that weren’t considered competitive before, such as the 1st and 4th congressional districts represented by Reps. Nick LaLota (R-NY) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), respectively.
“New York Democrats are feeling much better about their chances,” Levy said. “Their incumbents, who were feeling pretty jittery, now look fairly safe, allowing them to put more money into the districts that looked pretty iffy, but now are really competitive, like the 4th and, in a stretch, the 1st.
“But there’s a real question about whether New York will remain the outlier it was in 2022, whether the post-pandemic forces here that made the state’s competitive districts swing red, reversing a decadeslong trend, are still strong enough to hold off the Democratic surge,” he added.
But while Levy denies that Hochul will hold much responsibility if Democrats can’t regain the House seats they lost in 2022, she’s invested time and money into the effort. According to the New York Times, Hochul has footed much of the $5 million price tag associated with renewing the state Democratic Party’s efforts while in partnership with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Jeffries.
Republicans are happy she’s involved.
“Birds of a feather flock together,” Courtney Parella, a spokeswoman for the House Republicans’ primary super PAC, told the New York Times. “We hope Gov. Hochul spends a great deal of time campaigning with New York Democrats on their shared agenda that has led to higher crime and a migrant crisis.”
But Hochul has an excuse for why her 2022 campaign was so close, which likely contributed to House Democrats losing seats.
In an interview with the New York Times, Hochul said she was distracted with building out her administration following her takeover of the governorship after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned. She couldn’t focus on putting together a campaign.
“I didn’t need anybody’s comments, right or wrong, to motivate something that I knew should have happened 30 years ago,” Hochul said of her actions since then.
“It would be a nice, easy conclusion to draw. ‘Oh, she’s trying to avenge her name for losing the House,’” she continued. “Well, I didn’t lose the House. There were other large states that lost the same number we lost,” including Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) California.
Still, despite Hochul’s renewed commitment, no House Democrat has a listed endorsement from her on their campaign page. One notable swing race House member, Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY), told the New York Times that “we’ll see what the next 57 days hold here,” when asked if he would appear with her.
Hochul has at least one outspoken New York Democrat behind her. Jeffries, who represents a Brooklyn district considered safely Democratic, said Hochul is “doing a great job on our behalf” and supported a temporary pause on congestion pricing in August.
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Jeffries, like Hochul, has a lot on the line in the 2024 election. If the governor fails to generate much voter excitement in the state, he could lose a rare title: speaker of the House.
The Washington Examiner previously reported that New York’s 4th, 17th, 18th, and 19th congressional districts should be considered races to watch.
