Analysts at the non-partisan Cook Political Report moved the rating for ten congressional districts in favor of the Republican candidates with only a week left before the midterm race.
Cook Political explained that many of the congressional districts President Joe Biden won comfortably during the last presidential election are at risk of being lost because Democrat governors are underperforming. In comparison, Republicans are surging as they focus on high crime and skyrocketing inflation. The report explained that the safest Democrats are in states that do not have competitive statewide races.
The 12 districts that Cook changed were:
- Rep. Josh Harder (D) in California’s 9th Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Julia Brownley (D) in California’s 26th Congressional District went from “Solid Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Katie Porter (D) in California’s 49th Congressional District went from “Leans Democrat.” to “Toss-up.”
- Rep. Sean Casten (D) in Illinois’s 6th Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Andy Kim (D) in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- New York’s 3rd Congressional District, an open seat currently held by a Democrat, went from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
- New York’s 4th Congressional District, an open seat currently held by a Democrat, went from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
- Rep. Joe Morelle in New York’s 25th Congressional District went from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.”
- Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, an open seat currently held by a Democrat, went from “Toss-up” to “Lean Republican.”
Cook Political also indicated that some open seats allowed the Republicans to “remain closer to spending parity,” and all the open seats are in states where the GOP candidates in the governor’s races are surging, helping the down-ballot races.
The analysis explained that some of the seat shifts — Harder, Porter, Casten, Underwood, and Kim — are due to the redistricting process, giving them a district with over 45 percent of the voters being new, while two other districts — Brownley and Morelle — got even weaker districts.
The most recent round of changes to the district show 212 seats are rated at least “Lean Republican,” while 188 seats are rated at least “Lean Democrat,” and 35 are rated a “Toss-up.”
With this, if the House Republicans can win all of the “Lean,” “Likely,” and “Solid” Republican races, the party would only need to win six of the “Toss-up” races to regain the majority in the House. That is compared to the Democrats needing to win 29 of the 35 “Toss-up” races to stay in the majority.
Overall, Cook Political says the Republicans would gain between 12 and 25 seats.
Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.
