The Iowa caucuses kick off the 2024 GOP presidential nominating process for Republicans as former President Donald Trump looks to pull off the greatest comeback in modern political history by retaking the Oval Office while fending off challenges from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
The caucuses, which begin at 7 p.m. Central Time in the Hawkeye State, mark the beginning of a long process of caucuses and primaries nationwide. Results are expected to start streaming in around 8:30 p.m. Eastern, 7:30 p.m. Central, and continue throughout the evening.
The big question of course is whether Trump can win as decisively as polls suggest he will, and if he does what margin he holds over whoever comes in second. But also, who comes in second between Haley and DeSantis matters–and what the margins for those second and third place candidates are matter too.
Two other candidates, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, are also running. Ramaswamy’s team has argued his support is stronger than the. polls suggest whereas Hutchinson’s numbers have been stalled around a percent or two so whether either is able to outperform expectations will be another story to watch.
Iowa’s well-below-freezing temperatures–wind chills are expected to reach several dozen degrees below zero in some parts of the state–could have a major impact on turnout. But ultimately this first contest, where 40 delegates will be awarded proportionately based on the percentages of the various candidates’ finishes, will possibly determine just how complicated or grueling the rest of the calendar is for Trump, the likely eventual nominee for the GOP. A decisive victory in Iowa, followed by a similar performance in eight days in New Hampshire a week from Tuesday, could set the stage for an early and easy finish for Trump as soon as then or in South Carolina later in February. Between New Hampshire and South Carolina, too, are the Nevada caucuses, where Trump is expected to clean up big based off public polling showing him absolutely dominating there.
But a closer-than-expected photo finish could give at least one of Trump’s two main remaining challengers, DeSantis or Haley, the gumption needed to drag this race into March to Super Tuesday or perhaps beyond there. A delayed formal conveyance of presumptive GOP nominee for president for Trump could lead to donor class backers of DeSantis and Haley extracting concessions out of Trump if and when he gets there, and could divide the party heading into a high-stakes general election where Trump is expected to face off against Democrat President Joe Biden for a rematch unlike any other in U.S. history.
As results stream in from the Iowa caucuses, follow along here on Breitbart News for live updates and analysis.
UPDATE 10:22 p.m. ET:
Trump is expected to speak at his victory party in Des Moines very soon.
UPDATE 10:14 p.m. ET:
DeSantis’s headquarters was desolate when the AP called the race for Trump just after 8:30 p.m. ET:
Here’s the scene at the DeSantis watch party when the race was called for Trump by the AP. The music just came on. #iacaucus pic.twitter.com/EuvAIbn6nV
— Clay Masters (@Clay_Masters) January 16, 2024
There is a growing sense in Trump-world after this blowout victory that if Trump can replicate this in New Hampshire in eight days he might be able to wrap it up right there and then. That would have previously been unthinkable, as most expected the race to carry at least until South Carolina. Now, Trump could be set up thanks to Iowa to deliver the knockout punch in New Hampshire to both Haley and DeSantis in less than a fortnight.
UPDATE 10:05 p.m. ET:
DeSantis supporters are significantly deflated. One such DeSantis supporter is publicly ripping the DeSantis operation for boasting all year about 60,000 plus “commitment cards,” but being on track for far, far less votes than that. It appears as though this demonstrates the supposedly vaunted DeSantis organizational structure was not so organized after all the bluster from his team:
DeSantis is currently tracking for a vote total of <30,000…
How this even possible???!!
I was told (at least 200 times) by my fellow DeSantis supporters that he had like 60,000 Iowa “commitment cards”!
Its almost like those cards didn’t mean anything (just like I told you)!
— John Ziegler (@Zigmanfreud) January 16, 2024
UPDATE 9:48 p.m. ET:
While Trump’s victory is not in doubt, the final margins are still changing as more of the votes are getting counted. According to CNN, with 34 percent reporting statewide, Trump is at 52 percent while DeSantis is in second at 20.3 percent and Haley is in third at 19.2 percent. This is a historic blowout. Assuming these margins hold, this means Trump will have won the biggest victory in a contested Iowa caucus in its history–and will have gotten the highest percentage ever in a contested Iowa caucus. Meanwhile, the bitter race for second between Haley and DeSantis bodes horribly for both of them as the two are going to gruel out a contest for also-ran from here on forward.
UPDATE 9:38 p.m. ET:
Pressure is now building on DeSantis to drop out of the race and end his failing bid for the GOP nomination. In Virginia, State Sen. John McGuire–the first elected Republican in the Old Dominion state to endorse Trump there–is calling on DeSantis to end his campaign. McGuire is running in the fifth congressional district GOP primary against DeSantis-backer Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), the new chairman of the House Freedom Caucus and someone caught on video recently trashing Trump baselessly.
In a statement released on Monday evening after Trump’s romp in the Iowa caucuses, McGuire called on DeSantis to drop out–and for Good to back off DeSantis and to get behind Trump.
“I was the first elected official in Virginia to endorse President Trump for 2024 and I congratulate him on a well-deserved victory in the Iowa caucus,” McGuire said. “The best thing for Iowa, Virginia, and this great country is for Donald Trump to be president again, and I’m doing everything I can to make that happen. My opponent, Bob Good, is working against and disparaging Donald Trump, which is very dangerous for the future of America. It’s time for Ron DeSantis (Never Trumper Bob Good’s favorite candidate) to drop out, along with the other Republicans still in the presidential race. Stop helping the Democrats — let’s get Trump back in the White House so he can Save America.”
UPDATE 9:17 p.m. ET:
Just weeks ago, Team DeSantis was publicly arguing that Trump was “worried” he would be “losing” the Iowa caucuses–and that the Trump team was “laying the groundwork to claim there is fraud” in such a case:
Appears the Trump campaign is afraid of losing Iowa and they are laying the groundwork to claim there is fraud.
What a joke.
— Matt Wolking (@MattWolking) December 10, 2023
Wolking is the top communications adviser for the pro-DeSantis Super PAC Never Back Down–and clearly one of the only people who worked there over the past year who survived a mass exodus from the organization–so him saying this in early December is a pretty stunning revelation now that Trump won the Iowa caucuses in an absolute blowout landslide victory, and it’s the DeSantis campaign whining about “election interference” from media outlets who called the race so early because of how big a win it was for Trump.
UPDATE 9:12 p.m. ET:
Trump is reportedly waiting to give a victory speech until after more of the margins report in the official results, but he is reportedly at his victory party in Iowa.
UPDATE 9:09 p.m. ET:
The DeSantis campaign itself is now formally endorsing the nonsense that the early calls for Trump’s historic victory after his landslide win in the Iowa caucuses was “election interference.”
“It is absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote,” DeSantis campaign communications director Andrew Romeo said in a statement this evening. “The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.”
Obviously, it is not election interference–but the desperation of the DeSantis operation, whose candidate spent months publicly predicting victory only to be crushed at the polls, is only going to intensify.
UPDATE 9:06 p.m. ET:
Trump is clearly very happy after the projections he has won the Iowa caucuses in a landslide blowout victory:
Boom! pic.twitter.com/n1UCpKQlVO
— Chris LaCivita (@LaCivitaC) January 16, 2024
UPDATE 9:02 p.m. ET:
Trump-world is ecstatic right now in celebrating the former president’s historic victory.
“The people of Iowa sent a clear message tonight: Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee for President,” Alex Pfeiffer, the communications director of the pro-Trump Super PAC MAGA Inc., said, for instance. “It’s now time to make him the next President of the United States.Joe Biden’s team just announced a massive war chest. Every dollar spent by President Trump’s primary losers is a dollar that could be fighting Joe Biden. Once the DC RINOs are finished crying in their cocktails over tonight’s results, it’s time for Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy to face reality and stop wasting time and resources.”
UPDATE 8:50 p.m. ET:
Team DeSantis top ally Bill Mitchell is whining about the networks and media calling the Iowa caucuses for Trump so quickly, claiming it is “election interference”:
Calling this race with people still voting is TOTAL BULLSHIT ELECTION INTERFERENCE. pic.twitter.com/m6VGK9MIug
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) January 16, 2024
UPDATE 8:43 p.m. ET:
Trump’s Super PAC is rubbing it in, quoting a top DeSantis surrogate saying before the caucuses that if Trump won them as he now has that Trump will be the GOP nominee for president this year:
DeSantis backer Bob Vander Plaats put it best when he told Fox News, “If President Trump wins Iowa here, I think it’s going to be awfully hard to make the case that you can beat President Trump and he’s going to be your eventual nominee.” pic.twitter.com/lmzvmly4QS
— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) January 16, 2024
UPDATE 8:38 p.m. ET:
The fact that all the networks and the AP called the race for Trump with less than 1 percent reporting is a terrible sign for anyone not named Trump still trying to run for the GOP nomination for president. Haley and DeSantis, who are battling it out for a clearly distant second place, are going to face real questions moving forward about whether they can continue their campaigns beyond tonight.
UPDATE 8:34 p.m. ET:
The Associated Press has also called the Iowa caucuses for Trump as well, yet another sign of his blowout win on Monday evening:
BREAKING: Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential caucuses in Iowa. #APRaceCall at 7:31 p.m. CST. https://t.co/FjgpZFcJ4E
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) January 16, 2024
UPDATE 8:32 p.m. ET:
CNN projected at 8:30 p.m. ET that Donald Trump has won the Iowa caucuses, a sign of a blowout victory for the former president.
UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET:
The first results are trickling in from around Iowa, per the New York Times, and Trump has an early lead of 151 votes to DeSantis’s 24 votes and Haley’s 13 votes. It’s early, but things are looking good for Trump.
UPDATE 8:22 p.m. ET:
Trump is speaking at a caucus site in Clive, Iowa, bashing the Chinese Communist Party in his address seeking Iowans’ votes–while also noting he gave billions to the farmers in Iowa during his presidency. Trump is also ripping Biden’s open borders, talking about terrorists streaming across the border.
UPDATE 8:13 p.m. ET:
CNN is reporting that turnout is down in the Des Moines area, which is potentially bad for DeSantis and Haley. “That’s bad news for the non-Trump candidates,” John King says, interpreting reports of low turnout in Iowa’s biggest city.
UPDATE 8:08 p.m. ET:
Trump, according to CNN entrance polling, is absolutely crushing it with evangelicals, getting 55 percent support. This bodes very well for the former president.
UPDATE 8:06 p.m. ET:
In an NBC News entrance poll broken down by Chuck Todd on NBC News Now, 81 percent of the caucus-goers were registered Republicans, 16 percent were independents, and three percent were Democrats. This bodes well for more hardline conservatives and poor for more moderate candidates.
UPDATE 8:00 p.m. ET:
The Iowa caucuses are officially underway now across the Hawkeye State.
CNN says in its entrance poll that Trump is the early leader of the candidates entering the caucuses, and DeSantis and Haley are in a fierce fight for second place.
UPDATE 7:57 p.m. ET:
CNN’s entrance poll shows that 54 percent of caucus-goers call themselves “very conservative,” significantly higher than the 40 percent eight years ago. The top issues are immigration and the economy.
UPDATE 7:56 p.m. ET:
CNN reports that turnout is extremely high in Council Bluffs–so high that the organizers of the caucus site there ran out of ballots and have had to hand out legal paper for people to vote on.
Voting begins in minutes statewide.
UPDATE 7:48 p.m. ET:
According to a CNN entrance poll, 53 percent said they would consider themselves a member of the MAGA movement. Sixty-three percent also said Trump is fit for the presidency even if convicted on one of the charges he faces in various places. A strong majority also said Democrat President Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.
David Axelrod, a former Barack Obama adviser, said these early entrance poll results seem like a “good looking electorate for Donald Trump.”
UPDATE 7:42 p.m. ET:
If Haley ever did get the nomination, she would have serious issues consolidating the GOP:
40% of Trump voters in Iowa won’t support Haley if she is the nominee, according to Fox News
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) January 16, 2024
UPDATE 7:38 p.m. ET:
People are streaming into caucus locations all over Iowa right now and checking in as they verify they are eligible to vote. CNN is currently interviewing people at different locations, and found one man who claims to be a Democrat who’s switching parties to vote for Nikki Haley.
UPDATE 7:22 p.m. ET:
Caucus sites are beginning to open across the state of Iowa and it does appear as though Trump supporters are showing up:
One of the first people has arrived at a Sioux City Republican precinct at Western Iowa Tech Community College, 2.5 hours in advance of Iowa caucuses.
Duane Brown has Trump gear on shirt and hat, ready to roll to support former president.— Bret Hayworth (@SCJBretH) January 15, 2024
Trump’s team also has an all-star cast of surrogates on hand throughout the state:
https://t.co/adQk8w2suD pic.twitter.com/QeqhCXz4nl
— Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) January 15, 2024
In addition to those, as Breitbart News reported earlier, Montana U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is in Iowa as a formal Trump surrogate.
