Incumbent Ted Cruz Projected to Keep Key Seat in Texas Senate Race

Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will remain in his Senate seat after a challenge from three-term Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), Fox News projected.

The Senate race was called around 9:30 p.m. with nearly 60 percent of the votes counted, showing Cruz leading Allred 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent. 

The contest was one of the nation’s most expensive and closely watched Senate races, with both candidates raising more than $160 million combined.

Cruz first won his Senate seat in 2012 against former state Rep. Paul Sadler by nearly 16 points. He won his reelection more narrowly in 2018 by 2.6 points against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX). RealClearPolling predicted a Cruz win in 2024 by 4.4 points. 

Allred sought to do what no Democrat has done since 1994: win a statewide election in Texas. Democrats also pumped millions of dollars into the race in the hopes of snagging the Senate seat from Republicans and padding their current 51-49 majority. 

The Texas Senate race is one of eleven critical races that will determine which party controls the United States Senate in the next Congress. The road to a GOP majority arguably begins with defending both Cruz’s seat and the seat currently held by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who is in a close race with former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), Breitbart News’ Nick Gilbertson assessed. 

“Republicans will ensure they retain at least 49 seats if Cruz and Scott win these races, setting themselves up to take and build a majority through contests elsewhere,” he wrote. 

Allred largely focused his campaign on abortion, much like Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats across the country. Cruz chose to focus his campaign largely on the floundering economy and porous southern border under the Biden-Harris administration. 

The border emerged as one of voters’ top concerns ahead of the 2024 presidential election as countless stories emerged of women and children being assaulted and murdered by violent criminals allowed into the United States by the Biden-Harris administration. 

Analysis by the Texas Tribune found that 58 solid red counties and six border counties broke their 2020 early voting turnout record. For example, Zapata County, which is home to roughly 8,000 people south of Laredo, saw a 14 percent increase in turnout rate. 

At the same time, the outlet found that big blue counties failed to outperform their 2020 early voting turnout. 

“In fact, the state’s largest counties all saw a similar decline in their turnout rate, between 10 and 12 percentage points,” the report states. 

The Texas Secretary of State reported a record 18.62 million registered voters in 2024 — five percent higher than the November 2022 number of 17.67 million. Approximately nine million ballots were cast during early voting statewide.