Poll: Trump Narrowly Leads Biden in Swing-State Michigan

Former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading President Joe Biden with voters in Michigan, a Mitchell Research poll found.

In a trial ballot question to 627 voters in Michigan, Trump leads Biden 47 percent to 44 percent, within the survey’s ±3 percent margin of error. Nine percent of voters are undecided. 

In a five-way trial ballot test, Trump is ahead of Biden 44 percent to 42 percent, followed by independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (six percent), Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein (one percent), and independent Cornel West (one percent). 

“African Americans and younger voters have not yet coalesced around Biden, which is why Trump leads, When the [sic] ‘come home’ to Biden, this race will get very close. Whichever candidate can get out the vote in November will win a very tight contest,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research said.

📊 Michigan GE: Mitchell Research

Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
Trump 44% (+2)
Biden 42%
RFK Jr 6%
West 1%
Stein 1%@MIRSnews | 2.0/3.0 | 3/15-16 | n=626https://t.co/rJd8i0WaEA pic.twitter.com/4WKeh2xD6V

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 24, 2024

When given the option between Trump and Biden, 90 percent of Republican Michiganders say they would support Trump, while 84 percent of Democrats would support Biden.

“[M]ore importantly, [Biden] is faced with the embarrassing situation of giving away 12 percent of his vote to former President Trump,” the poll report states. 

By sex, Trump has a massive lead among men (54 percent to 37 percent), while Biden leads with women (51 percent to 40 percent). 

“This is highly unusual because generally Democrats win because they get a greater proportion of women than men get Republicans,” the report states.

By age group, Trump leads Biden by 18 percentage points with 18 to 44-year-olds (54 percent to 36 percent) and with 45 to 64-year-olds (50 to 39 percent).

Trump also leads by three percent with white voters (47 percent to 44 percent) but trails Biden with black American voters, 58 percent to 33 percent.

“However, Trump also leads with voters who are neither white nor African American by 33 percent (61 percent – 27 percent),” the report states. 

Broken down by county, Trump leads in Wayne County outside of Detroit (55 percent to 29 percent), Macomb County (54 percent to 45 percent), and in Northern Michigan/the Upper Penninsula (51 percent to 42 percent), the survey found. Biden leads in the City of Detroit (62 percent to 38 percent), Oakland County (52 percent to 42 percent), and West Michigan (43 percent to 42 percent). Trump and Biden are tied at 45 percent in Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland, and The Thumb. 

Overall voter enthusiasm in relatively strong in Michigan. Sixty-three percent report being “very enthusiastic” and 15 percent are “somewhat enthusiastic,” while seven percent are “not very” and 12 percent are “not at all.”

Republicans in Michigan are more enthusiastic than Democrats and independents about the upcoming election, 69 percent to 58 percent and 61 percent.

“These percentage [sic] are far different than the poll we conducted in June where we saw Democrats being far more enthusiastic than Republicans,” the poll report states. 

Men (70 percent) also report being more enthusiastic than women (57 percent), and white voters are more excited (65 percent) than black American voters (46 percent).

“The big question for both Democrats and Republicans is whether African Americans and younger voters who are flirting with the Republican Party will continue to do so as the election grows closer. Even if they do not, the huge 10% enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans might be enough to push Trump over the goal line in November,” Mitchell concluded. 

The survey was commissioned by MIRS (Michigan Information Research Services) and was conducted March 15-16, 2024, by Mitchell Reasearch & Communications Inc. It has a margin of error of three percent at the 95 percent level of confidence.