Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in a 2024 matchup despite various legal woes, the latest J.L. Partners/Daily Mail survey found.
The survey showed Trump leading with 40 percent support and Biden coming in four points behind with 36 percent support. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sees four percent support, while fellow independent candidate Cornel West sees one percent support. In other words, their participation does not appear to be hurting Trump, as some previously thought would occur.
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According to the survey’s summary, “Nationally, Biden is losing slightly more than Trump is to RFK Jr, as well as losing 4% of his 2020 voters to Trump directly.”
Further, the trends appear to be going in Trump’s direction, as Biden led Trump by two points over the summer in a head-to-head matchup. Now, in December, Trump leads Biden by three points:
2024 National GE:
Trump 46% (+3)
Biden 43%
.
Trump 40% (+4)
Biden 36%
Kennedy 4%
West 1%
Stein 0%.@JLPartnersPolls/@DailyMail, 984 LV, 12/15-20https://t.co/3LWExUzTgUhttps://t.co/75vUhCR4Cg
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 26, 2023
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @JLPartnersPolls
Trump: 46% (+3)
Biden: 43%
—
Trump: 40% (+4)
Biden: 36%
RFK Jr: 4%
West: 1%
—@DailyMail | 984 LV | MoE: ±3.1%https://t.co/1kqMJjWOeH pic.twitter.com/RrACUVgUZY— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 26, 2023
The survey also found Trump continuing to improve his standing among independent voters, leading Biden with 42 percent compared to Biden’s 40 percent. In June, Trump trailed Biden among independent voters, garnering 38 percent to Biden’s 42 percent.
The survey spells more bad news for Biden as well, showing him losing support among women. In June, 51 percent of women supported him. That has since dropped to 47 percent. Conversely, Trump’s support has increased among women, moving from 39 percent in June to 41 percent in December.
“Biden has taken a particular hit amongst 18-29 year old women, and suffers from low enthusiasm amongst black people too. There is also a big chunk of undecideds — one in ten of Biden 2020 voters — who might not like Biden but can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump,” James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, said.
“The takeaway from this has to be that, come the election, the race will be tighter,” he continued. “As we end 2023, both candidates have it all to play for.”
The results come less than a month ahead of Iowa’s January 15 caucus, which will formally kick off the GOP primary season as Trump, who leads in virtually every primary poll, moves to make his frontrunner status official, setting up a 2020 rematch in November as he battles continued legal issues, most recently getting kicked off the ballot in Colorado — a move which his campaign is challenging.
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