Former President Donald Trump is on the cusp of becoming the presumptive Republican nominee for president again in 2024. A dominant performance against his last remaining rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, on Tuesday in New Hampshire could help Trump seal the deal.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s exit from the race on Sunday — he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump before the New Hampshire primary — left Haley as the last one standing against Trump, and she is barely upright as voters head to the polls to cast their ballots.
Trump, meanwhile, commands a gargantuan and growing lead over Haley in the Granite State. One survey even put Trump at over 60 percent:
Final New Hampshire GOP Primary Poll
• Trump — 62% (+27)
• Haley — 35%
—
Undecided — 3%@InsiderPolling | January 21 | 850 LVhttps://t.co/gFs9cXAiqs pic.twitter.com/mqQ24FiPRd— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
But every recently released survey has Trump at or over 50 percent with majority support and Haley under 40 percent down in the mid-to-low 30s.
Final New Hampshire GOP Primary Poll
• Trump — 58% (+22)
• Haley — 36%
—
• Undecided — 6%Trafalgar (B) | Jan. 19-21 | 1,084 LVhttps://t.co/6BJchKTbfo pic.twitter.com/YDiqiWd3Vu
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
📊 New Hampshire GOP Primary
President:
• Trump — 50% (+16)
• Haley — 34%
• DeSantis — 11%
—
Governor:
• Ayotte — 54% (+32)
• Morse — 22%
—
Favs:
Sununu: 69-21 (+48)
Haley: 61-26 (+35)
Trump: 62-30 (+32)@UML_CPO | 600 LV | 1/6-16 | ±4.65%https://t.co/XUP6zo3hKl pic.twitter.com/o2L2Bp9kLc— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
📊 2024 New Hampshire GOP Primary
• Trump — 57% (+19)
• Haley — 38%Suffolk (A-) | 500 LV | 1/20-21 | ±4.4%https://t.co/HTXsPVROop pic.twitter.com/wBP0BbUXTd
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
Final New Hampshire GOP Primary Poll
• Trump — 52% (+18)
• Haley — 34%
• DeSants — 8%
—
Favs:
Trump: 59-36 (+23)
Haley: 46-40 (+6)
—
WP/Monmouth (A) | 1/16-20 | 712 LVhttps://t.co/14OU3hbfuQ pic.twitter.com/lh3ynA5y4s— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
The race has quickly changed since a week ago when Iowans propelled Trump to a historic and record-setting win over DeSantis and Haley, as businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out and endorsed Trump that night, and of course, DeSantis joined Ramaswamy in dropping out and endorsing Trump last weekend.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), also a one-time candidate who dropped out late last year, backed Trump over Haley despite the latter having appointed him to the U.S. Senate over a decade ago. Both Trump and Haley had sought Scott’s endorsement, so Scott’s move to back Trump instead especially stings. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, meanwhile, had endorsed Trump before the Iowa caucuses and joined Ramaswamy and Scott in campaigning for Trump on the eve of the New Hampshire primary at a fireworks-filled grand finale befitting Trump’s era of GOP control.
While Haley is finally getting her long-desired one-on-one shot at Trump in the first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday, given the changes in the trajectory of things — and the quick consolidation behind Trump from the rest of the Republican Party with rare exception at this stage — anything less than a shocker outright victory over Trump from Haley would essentially doom her campaign’s future prospects. Haley is not even competing in the next-up Nevada GOP caucuses in February — she is competing in the U.S. Virgin Islands caucuses that fall on the same day, February 8 — so the next real battle, if she chooses to stick it out past Tuesday, would come in South Carolina, which is holding its first-in-the-South primary more than a month away on Feb. 24. Surviving that long, especially when Trump is handily crushing her in public polling even more so than he is New Hampshire, is unlikely at best and could set her up for an embarrassing defeat in her home state.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks to reporters following a town hall campaign event on Dec. 12, 2023, in Manchester, NH. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)
Like in the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses, the lead-up to New Hampshire’s primaries is not so much about the eventual winner. At this stage, Haley’s top surrogate — New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Chris Sununu — has tried to lower expectations for her from projecting victory to hoping for a stronger-than-expected second-place finish. But since the race is now down to two candidates, unless Haley can seriously cut into Trump’s margins in the Granite State and finish very close behind him or pull off a victory, Trump could be cruising from here to winning the nomination outright on Tuesday night.
New Hampshire voters, in other words, could put Donald Trump over the top by delivering him a strong majority and a double-digit win over Haley — essentially finishing her off and ending this primary-that-never-really-was altogether and clearing the way for Trump very early in the cycle. Of course, if Trump finishes with a double-digit margin over Haley, her path forward becomes essentially non-existent — if it isn’t already — and she could drop out Tuesday evening after the race is called, or in the few days afterward. What that means is another 2024 Republican candidate who dropped out — former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — would have been absolutely correct when a hot mic picked him up saying Haley would get “smoked.”
If and when Haley leaves the race, which again seems likely to happen sooner rather than later with another decisive Trump victory on Tuesday, that leaves behind no more serious challenge however futile to his campaign to become the Republican nominee for president for a third straight presidential election. As such, that would make Trump the presumptive Republican nominee for president this year — and it would be simply a matter of checking boxes for him to win the necessary delegates from here on forward, saving him the need to campaign in South Carolina and the next-up states of Michigan, Idaho, Missouri, and the 14 Super Tuesday states.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Manchester, NH., Jan. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)
Assuming he succeeds in doing so, for Trump, wrapping the race up a month and a half before Super Tuesday is a massive boon heading into the general election. It would save Trump and Republicans a fortune that they can turn against Democrat President Joe Biden — who actually would, in such a likely scenario, still face as the incumbent president more of a primary challenge from his remaining competitors, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson — as the GOP then looks to the general election. It also allows Republicans to spend much more of the most precious commodity in politics — time — focused on winning the general election and bringing the heat on Biden and Democrats. It would, too, allow Trump to begin hitting the campaign trail in presidential battleground states early — and put heat on Biden in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and beyond.
Trump told Breitbart News in late December that he intends to make a “heavy play” for bluer states like New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico. Sealing the deal to become the presumptive nominee before January ends bodes well for those purposes too. Trump could foray into them now with little risk. Or he could spend the extra time helping Republicans crush a brewing immigration deal in the U.S. Senate, one he has panned, or use it fighting his legal wars. But again, more time is a commodity that can never be replaced, and Trump earning it with an early wrapping of the nomination — which starts with knocking out Haley in New Hampshire with a decisive victory — helps him immensely and is bad news for Biden.
