President Donald Trump’s directive to freeze $10 billion in federal funding for child care and social services programs in five Democrat-led states has not only reignited his feud with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), but it could backfire on him.
Newsom, who is eyeing a 2028 presidential run, has accused Trump of unleashing a political vendetta after the president justified his actions on social media by accusing the Democratic governor of widespread fraud. Newsom’s office dismissed Trump, calling him a “degranged, habitual liar whose relationship with reality ended years ago.”
Newsom also turned the tables by saying he welcomed a federal investigation into his state for possible fraud.
“If [Trump] has some unique insight and information, I look forward to partnering with him,” Newsom said. “I can’t stand fraud.”
Political observers from both parties said Trump’s comments could inadvertently give Newsom the spotlight he craves.
“What a gift to Newsom,” Binghamton University history professor Donald Nieman told the Washington Examiner. “It allows him to grab headlines and continue to claim the mantle of the most pugnacious, media-savvy, and telegenic Democrat willing to take Trump on.”
Los Angeles-based political pundit Jamie E. Wright said Newsom’s invitation to weed out fraud flips the optics.
“While California appears to be cooperative and willing to allow its actions to be investigated, the White House appears to be acting in a vindictive manner,” Wright told the Washington Examiner. “This is bigger than child care alone. This is the beginning of the 2028 election cycle.”
By utilizing child care funding to punish states that voted Democratic in the last presidential election, Trump may be able to energize his base. Newsom may be able to elevate his national profile and demonstrate that he will oppose federal overreach at the expense of children and families by challenging the federal government’s use of child care funding to cause family-level harm.
“It is not hyperbole to say this is a political vendetta,” Wright added. “When funding essential for governing is utilized as a bargaining chip, the line separating good governance and petty politics blurs.”
Nieman agreed that the problem itself benefited Newsom.
“At a time when Trump is playing World Policeman (and dominating the news cycle with foreign policy adventures), Newsom will be able to refocus the conversation — at least for a few moments — on families struggling to cope with one of the biggest challenges to affordability — child care,” he said.
James Christopher, the founder of a New York–based political strategy firm, called the problem over threats to withhold federal funds a “textbook example of policy being weaponized for political coverage.” He added that the move further sharpens the contrast between the White House and Newsom.
“Gavin Newsom governs with his gloves off,” Christopher told the Washington Examiner. “He is legally fluent, politically agile, and always prepared to meet confrontation head-on — especially when California is in the crosshairs. By welcoming federal scrutiny and reframing the issue around families rather than bureaucracy, he’s signaling that he’s not afraid of a fight and that he’s confident in the state’s footing.
“Politically, this escalation fuels a narrative that extends well beyond California. Every time federal power is used to punish a blue state, it reinforces Newsom’s positioning as a national Democratic defender — someone willing to challenge the administration publicly and aggressively.”
If Newsom, who will be termed out of office this year, decides to run in 2028, moments such as this will give him the tools to strengthen his national profile and rally Democrats nationwide.
“From a strategic standpoint, this isn’t just a dispute over child care funding,” Christopher said. “It’s another front in an ongoing struggle over federal authority, state autonomy, and who gets to define the moral high ground when policy decisions intersect with people’s livelihoods.”
Trump’s announcement Tuesday came amid a broader push by his administration to target blue states accused of defrauding taxpayer-funded programs, following a series of prosecutions in Minnesota.
Erica Choinka, the conservative political content creator behind Politics For Her, said if California were confident that there had been no fraud, “transparency shouldn’t be controversial” and framed the situation as a test of whether “blue states that demand endless federal funding are willing to be held to the same accountability they expect from everyone else.”
But Yonatan S. Levoritz, founding attorney of Levoritz Law Firm, cautioned Newsom to wait before taking a victory lap. He said federal funds weren’t being cut off, despite what Trump claimed on a social media post. Instead, the government was asking for more paperwork to verify the eligibility of people receiving them.
“Newsom may welcome the audit, but the funds are probably being spent in large part on immigrants, which would cause Newsom to have further egg on his face, since he typically postures too early on in the game before learning the facts,” he told the Washington Examiner.
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Levoritz added that while the situation could bolster the outgoing governor’s image in the short run, it’s probably not enough to help him take the White House in two years.
“He has run California into the ground, and while it may add some fuel to his campaign, it is not going to get him very far when people realize the funds are not being cut off, but rather more paperwork has to be provided,” Levoritz said.
