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A new poll released Thursday shows Arizona Republicans trailing their Democratic opponents in the state’s key Senate and gubernatorial races less than 7 weeks before the November general election.
According to an AARP poll of likely Arizona voters, incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly leads Republican nominee Blake Masters 50%-42% in the race for the Senate, while Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has a slight lead over Republican nominee Kari Lake 49%-48% in the gubernatorial race.
A bright spot for Republicans in the poll shows them leading a generic congressional ballot by just one point over Democrats, 48%-47%, while a small percentage of voters in each race remains undecided.
In the Senate race, Kelly leads Masters in nearly every category of voters, including those aged 50 and older (48%-44%), independents (47%-39%), women (56%-36%), college educated (56%-37%) and Hispanic (63%-38%).
Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters speaks at a ‘Save America’ rally hosted by former President Donald Trump in support of Arizona GOP candidates on July 22, 2022 in Prescott Valley, Arizona. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Masters leads Kelly among men (50%-43%) and those without a college degree (46%-45%), but the two tied the preference of White voters at 46% each.
Libertarian Senate candidate Marc Victor drew 4% support among likely voters.
In the gubernatorial race, Lake and Hobbs split each category, indicating how much the race has tightened.
Lake leads with voters aged 50 and older (50%-48%), men (53%-43%), voters without a college degree (53%-44%), and White voters (52%-45%), while Hobbs lead with independents (49%-45%), women (55%-42%), college educated voters (57%-40%) and Hispanic voters (62%-32%).
The poll found that President Biden’s approval rating is underwater with likely voters in the state, showing only 45% approve of the job he’s done as president, compared to 55% who disapprove.
Voters view former President Donald Trump more positively, with 50% approving of him and 50% disapproving.
Just 37% of voters have a favorable view of the state’s other Democratic senator, Kyrsten Sinema, who is not up for re-election until 2024. 54% have an unfavorable view of her.
Kari Lake, Republican gubernatorial candidate for Arizona, during an Election Night Party in Scottsdale, Arizona, US, on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022. (Caitlin O’Hara/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
When it came to which issues mattered most to voters as they head to the polls, immigration and border security came out on top with 16% of voters saying it was the most important. It was closely followed by inflation and rising prices at 14%.
Just 12% of voters viewed abortion as the most important issue, something Democrats across the country have invested heavily in campaigning on following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June.
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When asked specifically about the issues of inflation and rising prises and the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, 58% of voters aged 50 and older said inflation was the most important of the two, compared to just 40% who said Roe v. Wade.
Independents (55%-40%) and Republicans (90%-9%) agreed that inflation was more important than Roe v. Wade.
Only a majority of Democrats aged 50 and older (81%-17%) said Roe v. Wade was a more important issue than inflation.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) speaks during a press conference following the weekly Democratic caucus policy luncheon on February 08, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Overall voters had a poor view in terms of the direction the country is headed, with just 27% saying it’s headed in the right direction, and 72% in the wrong direction. The numbers were similar to how they felt about the direction of Arizona (27%-73%).
Additionally, 88% of voters said they were motivated to vote in the midterm elections this year, and 62% said they were “very” or “somewhat” worried about their personal financial situation.
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Fox News’ Power Rankings rate the Arizona Senate and gubernatorial races as “tossups.”
The general election will be held Tuesday, Nov. 8.
