October 10, 2024
Republicans appear poised to take control of the U.S. Senate thanks to the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.V., and a GOP surge in Montana.

New polling shows Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate in the upcoming election, with the GOP challenger leading against a Democrat incumbent in Montana.

Republican challenger Tim Sheehy leads the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester, in a 52% to 44% matchup, according to a New York Times/Sienna poll released Thursday. Democrats currently hold a 51-seat majority in the Senate, and Sen. Joe Manchin’s, I-W.V., decision to retire virtually guarantees a seat flipping toward the GOP.

While there are competitive races elsewhere in the Senate, Republicans appear to be holding strong, according to Marist polling. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is leading his race with 51% support, compared to the 46% of his challenger, Collin Allred.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., faces a closer race in Florida, where he holds a slim 50%-48% lead over challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

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Republicans appear poised to take control of the Senate in the 2024 battle for Congress.

Republicans appear poised to take control of the Senate in the 2024 battle for Congress.

That story is reversed in Ohio, however, where Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown holds a 50%-48% lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

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The Cook Political Report also shifted the Wisconsin Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up” this week.

Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement presents a major opportunity for Republicans to take the Senate.

Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement presents a major opportunity for Republicans to take the Senate.