Campaigns and prognosticators alike should expect a curveball from Mother Nature ahead of Monday’s Iowa caucus.
According to CNN, “dangerously frigid weather” from an Arctic blast will give Iowans “their coldest caucuses ever.”
With this in mind, Republican candidates and their staffers must adjust on the fly as they fret over turnout.
In an age of climate-change alarmism, we hear more about the dangers of rising temperatures than falling ones. Suffice it to say, however, that temperatures on Monday will lend no support to the global-warming narrative/hoax.
For instance, nearly all of Iowa will experience high temperatures below freezing.
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“Add winds to this bitter cold, and wind chill will reach life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day,” according to CNN.
Pollsters and pundits have spent months gathering and analyzing data. But will any of it matter?
The latest polls reported since Monday on RealClearPolitics show former President Donald Trump with leads of 32-43 points.
Meanwhile, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have polled neck-and-neck for second place.
Do you think the weather will impact the Iowa caucus?
Yes: 74% (17 Votes)
No: 26% (6 Votes)
Entrepreneur and dark-horse candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who has run an engaging and aggressive campaign in Iowa, remains in fourth place.
So who will benefit or suffer from the expected dangerous weather? As usual, it depends on which candidates and campaign staffers you ask.
“Weather is not gonna keep our people away, it’s gonna keep their people away,” Trump said last weekend, according to CNN.
Indeed, the Trump campaign has expressed confidence that its gargantuan lead in the polls will hold up to an Arctic blast.
“This is a bigger problem for everybody else than it is for us. The reason is their pool is a lot smaller, and they’re the ones trying to make the bigger gains,” a senior Trump campaign adviser told CNN.
Drew Klein, Senior Adviser in Iowa for the pro-Haley, Koch-backed super PAC AFP Action, admitted that the weather likely would depress turnout but also cited other factors.
“The weather is going to have an impact on turnout, but there are a lot of things that impact turnout, such as how voters feel about the polling numbers in the closing days. There are a lot of things I think at play. What we’re focused on doing right now is identifying as many Haley supporters as we can,” Klein said, according to CNN.
David Polyansky, deputy campaign manager for DeSantis, described the expected conditions as a comparative advantage.
“Team DeSantis is perfectly designed for the forecasted conditions. Organization is going to be key, and that has been a top priority since day one,” Polyansky said in a statement to CNN.
“But subzero weather also matches our grind-it-out mentality — we look forward to forcing our opponents to try to match our campaign pace when it hurts to breathe outside,” Polyansky added with no small measure of bravado.
As one might expect, the CNN article effectively froze out Ramaswamy. The upstart entrepreneur received a paltry few sentences at the bottom of a lengthy story.
On social media, however, the “America First 2.0” candidate has documented his Herculean effort to pull an upset in Iowa.
Friday on X, formerly Twitter, Ramaswamy conducted a “Tele-Townhall,” “Live from an Iowa Blizzard.”
Live from an Iowa Blizzard | Vivek 2024 “Tele-Townhall”https://t.co/BLMGsNcS2k
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) January 12, 2024
Also on Friday, the dark-horse candidate posted an 8-second clip of his vehicle traveling a snow-covered roadway. The clip appeared side-by-side with still photos of events at which Iowans turned out to see and hear Ramaswamy.
Iowans are still showing up – in the middle of a blizzard. pic.twitter.com/qrsnjYMOL8
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) January 12, 2024
As for how the caucuses might go, one wonders if the weather might amplify differences in age and enthusiasm.
A prominent Trump-supporting account on X called “johnny maga” has appealed for younger people to turn the frigid temperatures to the former president’s advantage.
“If you’re a young person in Iowa, you need to be caucusing for Trump on Monday night at 7:00 P.M. It’s going to be blistering cold. Older folks will stay home. You can’t let these freaks gain any ground on us. Patriots vote on game day,” johnny maga posted Friday.
If you’re a young person in Iowa, you need to be caucusing for Trump on Monday night at 7:00 P.M
It’s going to be blistering cold. Older folks will stay home
You can’t let these freaks gain any ground on us
Patriots vote on game day
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) January 12, 2024
Whatever happens on Monday, the weather also could have the effect of prolonging the Republican primary.
The candidate who overperforms expectations will move forward with confidence. But the one(s) who do not, rightly or otherwise, could argue extenuating circumstances.
On the other hand, a Trump landslide could make everything moot.
