Prominent FiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver posed a foreboding question for Democrats on Monday.
The question came on the heels of a devastating revelation for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.
The president just reached a new all-time low in approval. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls, Biden’s approval rating stands at a mere 37.6 percent.
This prompted Silver’s foreboding question.
But Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask. pic.twitter.com/1nmoKQkW85
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024
“… Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet?” Silver wrote.
“I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.”
Silver also pointed out that if projections hold, former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, will top the incumbent Democrat by seven points.
Will Biden be the Democratic nominee in November?
Yes: 45% (5 Votes)
No: 55% (6 Votes)
Trump’s current approval rating stands at 41.6 percent according to FiveThirtyEight.
According to a May 30 report from NPR, one of the biggest advantages Biden had in the 2020 election — young voters — appears to be slipping away.
According to 2020 exit polls cited by the outlet, Biden won voters age 18-29 by over 20 points and voters under 45 by 14 points.
Both once-wide leads have been nearly decimated as of May.
Biden’s 14-point lead with voters under 45 years old has been cut to just four points.
With Gen-Z and Millennials, Biden only leads by six points.
But that’s all before you introduce the independent and third-party candidates.
With independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix, Trump actually leads the Gen-Z/Millennial vote by six points and those under 45 by eight points.
Since this polling took place, the Libertarian party nominated its own candidate, Chase Oliver.
Oliver, a pro-LGBT candidate who went viral for previously defending drag queen story hour shortly after his nomination, plans to target “young voters angry about the Israel-Hamas war on college campuses, Twitch and TikTok,” according to Politico.
Should these strategies result in more young votes being pulled away from Democrats than Republicans, Trump’s lead among young voters could grow even wider come election day.
