If the 2024 presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump would defeat President Joe Biden by a margin of 46 to 41, according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll provided to The Hill on Friday.
In a matchup with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump would come out on top by 10 points.
The former president still leads the field of GOP primary candidates with 37 percent support, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 19 percent and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with 7 percent.
The Hill noted that support for DeSantis has declined from earlier polls, while support for Haley has increased from 3 percent in a January poll, a sign that she may have gained some momentum since declaring her candidacy this week.
The poll also showed that Biden’s approval number remained unchanged at 42 percent following his Feb. 7 State of the Union address.
The survey of 1,838 registered voters was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
This comes as good news for Trump, who has trailed Biden in recent polls. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows a virtual tie in a potential head-to-head matchup between the two, with Trump ahead by 0.1 percent as of Saturday afternoon.
A Quinnipiac poll released on Thursday showed Biden up by 2 points and a Public Policy Polling survey showed him up by 4.
Both candidates have negative favorability numbers. The Real Clear Politics favorability ratings show Biden underwater by 11.3 percent and Trump by a whopping 18.2 percent.
It’s so early in the campaign cycle and polling has been so inaccurate in both directions in recent years that any poll should be taken with a grain of salt.
That said, an overwhelming number of polls show that the majority of Democrats hope that Biden does not run for re-election.
NPR spoke with Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, who has been interviewing focus groups of people who voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020.
“They like Biden,” she said. “And in our most recent focus group, they liked [Biden’s] State of the Union.”
But in her last panel, six of the nine Biden voters hoped he would bow out of the race. One participant said, “I hate to say it and sound like an ageist — his age is getting really up there. … Do we want to elect a president and have him die in office?”
Other panelists firmly agreed. His age is an issue.
A number of recent polls have shown similar results. The Associated Press released a poll earlier this month that found only 37 percent of Democrats want Biden to run for re-election. That number had dropped 15 points from ahead of the midterm elections.
Longwell said, “Immediately when they start thinking about 2024, the first place they go is his age. They are simply worried he is too old for another term.”
“I’ve had a lot of people say things like, ‘Well, he’s going to be closer to 90 by the end of his second term than 80.’”
Will Biden run in 2024?
Yes: 29% (5 Votes)
No: 71% (12 Votes)
However, when she asked the group who they would vote for in a rematch between Biden and Trump, there was unanimous support for Biden.
Trump Derangement Syndrome is real. Trump presided over a robust economy, our border was the most secure it has ever been, and he projected strength in the world. And unlike Biden, whose every public appearance is marked by a gaffe, Trump is sharp as a tack.
Why these former Trump supporters would rather vote for a senile old man who has wrecked the country is inexplicable.
Although conservatives have been speaking openly about Biden’s cognitive decline since he launched his campaign in 2019, Democrats rarely, if ever, acknowledge it’s an issue. Their concern about his age is the closest they will come. I suppose if they were to admit it, they would be asked why he’s still in office and why they would even consider nominating him in 2024.
Biden has been on a steady downhill trajectory since he declared his candidacy. The decline from one year to the next cannot be mistaken. It’s becoming more and more difficult for his handlers to prop him up.
But they managed to carry him over the finish line in 2020, and they did the same for Democratic Sen. John Fetterman in November. Can they repeat the magic?
