As it turns out, with less than a month left until the presidential election, “joy” and “vibes” aren’t carrying Vice President Kamala Harris over the finish line. And Democrats, suddenly noticing this turn of events, are getting worried.
Two separate reports Thursday — one from The Hill and one from Fox News — quoted numerous Democrat functionaries, both on the record and anonymously, who are worried about Harris’ chances next month. Or, as one put it: “I’m scared to death.”
The assessments come after a series of media appearances and polls came up a mixed bag for Harris.
As for the media appearances, while more targeted appearances in smaller venues went well — the women’s podcast “Call Her Daddy” and “All the Smoke,” which is hosted by former NBAers Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson — appearances aimed at broader audiences fell flat.
Interviews on “60 Minutes” and “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” both saw her criticized for vague answers, a horde of platitudes, and a general inability to differentiate herself from the current president, aside from being occasionally coherent.
“She is still fine-tuning her message 28 days out, and I’m sorry, we are in the ‘make the sale’ phase of the campaign now, we’re not still tweaking the message,” one unnamed Democratic strategist said of the “60 Minutes” interview.
Then there were the polls: Two national polls that came out this week cited by The Hill — a New York Times/Siena College poll and a Reuters-Ipsos survey — found her in the lead by three points in each nationally. In both, however, she only had a plurality of support, and national surveys aren’t indicative of how swing states are doing.
“We all knew this would be hard,” an unnamed consultant told The Hill. “It’s going to come down to the wire. No one knows how this will end. That’s almost the scariest part.”
The consultant added that while Harris’ field operation is “doing all the right things” on fundraising and in the field, “it may not be enough” to secure a win.
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Democratic strategist James Carville, who’s been pretty blunt about his assessment of the state of the campaign thus far, was a bit more straightforward: “I’m scared to death,” he said Wednesday.
Former Obama advisor David Axelrod, meanwhile, said that while “Harris had a great launch, right through the convention and the debate … the race has plateaued.”
So, what’s to blame for the sudden jitters, considering Harris has had the easiest path to the nomination and establishment media coronation — i.e., all of it basically handed to her in the course of a weekend — of any candidate in recent memory?
“Now that the sugar high is gone, people have realized what Kamala Harris has said from the start, which is that she is the underdog,” said Anthony Coley, a consultant who was a staffer for the Biden and Obama administrations.
“If you’re not nervous, you’re not paying attention,” said Jamal Simmons, a former communications director for Kamala Harris.
“Everything is deadlocked and the composition of the electorate is unknowable, and there are so many things that are unprecedented,” Simmons added.
“We can’t look back with any level of security because we haven’t had an African-American woman on the ticket. We haven’t had a former president running again. We haven’t had a campaign with two assassination attempts. We haven’t switched out a candidate two months before Election Day before.”
And then there’s the fact that, while Harris has pulled into the lead in national poll aggregates, these are roughly the same numbers Hillary Clinton saw in polling at this point during the process in 2016. Not only that, Harris seems to be stuck at that magic 1-3 percent lead nationally, with the swing states being toss-ups.
“This is going to be a fight. … These numbers are just so stubborn,” Coley said.
Some sources tried to wave concerns away, to a certain extent, as the usual liberal jitters.
“We are Democrats. We are professionally nervous,” said Democratic strategist Tim Hogan, who said Harris’ campaign has “found solid footing in organizing, fundraising and messaging.”
“There’s confidence, but it’s measured because the stakes are so high,” Hogan said. “For the next four weeks, it’s about channeling that energy in productive ways: getting everyone on the doors and phones to turn out the vote.”
However, the anonymous quotes seemed to be a lot more realistic about the vice president’s chances than the ones from those willing to put names behind them.
One donor, who called the race a “flip of a coin” said “I feel better than I did last week, but it still doesn’t feel great.”
The reason? Harris’ economic message simply isn’t connecting with voters.
“And the economy is issues No. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5,” the donor said.
Maybe the Democrats should have thought about that one before they mindlessly passed the baton to someone who basically inherits all of the baggage of President Joe Biden’s administration with no new ideas of her own.
You can spruce it up with “joy,” “vibes” and “sugar highs” all you want, but the fact remains that people will vote with their bank accounts, not empty sentiments. Perhaps someone should have thought this one through before handing Harris the keys in mid-July and hoping it would all work out.
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