The co-called “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are all trending in Donald Trump’s favor, according to recent polling.
And the Republican is starting to put some noticeable distance between himself and Kamala Harris in Michigan.
Winning all three states has been a key to the last three Democrats who won the presidency: Joe Biden in 2020, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and Bill Clinton in 1996 and 1992.
Trump flipped all three in 2016, allowing him to defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton, and the last Republican to carry any of them before that was Ronald Reagan in his 49 state to 1 landslide over Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984.
NBC News quoted various unnamed Harris campaign sources in an article published Tuesday, and all signs point to there being some serious cracks in that blue wall.
“’There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,’ said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan. Those people still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory,” NBC said.
However, Harris campaign spokesperson Lauren Hitt pushed back on the notion that Michigan and other blue wall states are shifting into the Trump victory column.
“We absolutely are competing to win Michigan,” Hitt said, noting Harris’ presence there in recent days, including a town hall on Monday with former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney.
“We think we will win Michigan,” Hitt added.
Do you believe Kamala Harris will lose?
Yes: 96% (171 Votes)
No: 4% (7 Votes)
The Real Clear Polling average has Trump up 1.2 percent in Michigan. He had trailed Harris in the state from late July, when she became the presumptive Democratic nominee, until early October, when Trump look the lead and has not relinquished it since.
Trump now is in fact leading in not only all the blue wall states, albeit by less than 1 percent in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but has taken the lead in all the seven key swing states, in the RCP average. Early October, again, was when the shift took place in these other states.
In addition to Michigan, the Republican nominee holds the largest leads in Arizona (1.8 percent) and Georgia (2.5 percent).
Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 0.8 percent, Nevada by 0.9 percent and North Carolina by 0.5 percent.
NBC noted, “Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.”
“While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said,” according to the news outlet.
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” a Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
The Biden-Harris administration’s initial slow response to Hurricane Helene in the state could be a factor weighing against victory for Harris there, NBC said.
Finally, it’s worth noting Trump was trailing Clinton in all the blue wall states going into the 2016 election.
The RCP average of polls showed Clinton with a 3.4 percent lead in Michigan, but Trump ended up carrying the state by 0.3 percent.
In Wisconsin, Clinton led 6.5 percent in polling, but lost the state by 0.7 percent to Trump.
And in Pennsylvania, the Democrat was ahead by a less robust 1.9 percent, but Trump prevailed by a 0.7 percent margin.
So Trump and his supporters have good reason to be cautiously optimistic, if current trends hold, that the 45th president will become the 47th one, too.
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