Democrats have another emerging concern in their bid to hold on to a Senate majority next month.
Axios reported Friday that the race between incumbent Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde has tightened significantly as Election Day approaches.
“Multiple Democratic sources told Axios there are ‘alarm bells’ ringing in the state, arguing the race is much tighter than what public polling has shown,” the news outlet said.
The Real Clear Polling average shows Baldwin with a 3.5 percent lead.
Most recently, a New York Times/Siena College survey has Baldwin up 7 percentage points, but a Trafalgar Group poll released after the Times one shows her only with a 2 percent edge.
Axios further noted, “Between the lines: Over the next month, Republicans in the state have a nearly $3.5 million spending advantage on the airwaves, according to a source familiar with ad buys in Wisconsin.”
A super PAC affiliated with Mitch McConnell just dropped $17 million into the race.
Hovde is a real estate developer and CEO of Sunwest Bank, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
FEMA is out of money to assist Americans who desperately need help recovering from Helene, because politicians like Tammy Baldwin and Kamala Harris have given taxpayer funded handouts to illegal immigrants. That’s radical, extreme & WRONG.
This crap needs to stop and we need to… pic.twitter.com/ntgdOaHmWp
— Eric Hovde (@EricHovde) October 3, 2024
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In addition to a possible pick up in Wisconsin, the road to a Republican majority in the Senate appears to be widening.
Democrats currently have a one-seat advantage in the chamber, including four independent senators who caucus with the party.
Republicans are expected to pick up the West Virginia seat currently held by retiring independent Joe Manchin, which would bring the breakdown to 50-50 if the party control of the seats otherwise stayed the same.
Additionally, Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a Navy SEAL veteran, is currently ahead of incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester in Montana by nearly 6 percentage points in the RCP average.
So if all current GOP senators hold on their seats, which the Cook Political Report anticipates they will likely do, the Republicans would take the majority.
Additionally, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown appears vulnerable in Ohio, only holding a 3.3 percentage point lead in the RCP average. Cook rates the race a toss-up.
Also, the open Michigan Senate seat is a toss-up with Rep. Elissa Slotkin just holding a 3 percentage point lead in the RCP average over former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. This is a toss-up race, as well, according to Cook.
Other Senate races in which the GOP could potentially prevail include Arizona, Maryland, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
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