The saga of the assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk took a major turn this week following a bombshell report.
But just how much of a “bomb” was this report? Experts don’t seem so sure it’s the smoking gun, no pun intended, that many cynics — who aren’t buying the official federal narrative on Kirk’s death — have been clamoring for.
Late Monday, the U.K. Daily Mail published a report with this rather alarming headline: “Bullet used to kill Charlie Kirk did NOT match rifle allegedly used by suspect Tyler Robinson, new court filing claims.”
Robinson’s team brought this allegation to court in an obvious bid to defend their client, but also to call upon the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives to testify about this potential inconsistency. This would push back the preliminary hearing in Robinson’s case by six months.
The Daily Mail reported that Robinson’s defense attorneys “now argue that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives ‘was unable to identify the bullet recovered at autopsy to the rifle allegedly tied to Mr Robinson.’”
Understandably, social media — especially the cynical corners — had a field day with this report. Just look at some of the comments under the Daily Mail’s X post, which had already garnered over 83,000 likes as of Tuesday evening:
Bullet used to kill Charlie Kirk did NOT match rifle allegedly used by suspect Tyler Robinson, new court filing claims https://t.co/l70QXvGBrb
— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 30, 2026
But Fox News published a follow-up report featuring interviews with a variety of experts.
And those experts want to pump the brakes on all the newfound excitement surrounding this case.
“‘Unable to identify’ is not the same as ‘ruled out,’” a retired FBI supervisor agent told Fox News. “That’s a finding of inconclusiveness, not exoneration.”
The experts all generally agreed that inconclusive testing does not equate to ruling something out.
They added that even if the bullet is thrown out as evidence, prosecutors have compiled other evidence in the case.
A former ATF special agent explained to Fox News that while Robinson’s team appears to believe that the prosecution can’t link the bullet to the gun, there could be a very salient explanation for that.
“It’s not uncommon for a round that went through a human body, especially if it traveled through tissue, to say conclusively that it’s tied to a specific firearm, because by nature the projectile is supposed to transfer all of its kinetic energy, and it often disintegrates into fragments and whatnot,” the retired ATF agent told Fox. “The fact that it went through several bone structures — there was going to be very little left.”
Therefore, the experts agreed that it would be unfair to definitively say that the bullet wasn’t fired out of the suspect’s rifle, even if there isn’t enough evidence to definitively say it was.
Fox News further reported that testing at the scene of the alleged crime “did positively confirm that the spent shell casing found at the scene matched the suspected murder weapon.”
The former ATF agent explained why that matters so much: “To me that’s not problematic, but obviously the defense is gonna make big hay out of that, because they want to have the firearm removed from the case. If the shell casing has his DNA on it, [prosecutors] are solid.”
The former FBI agent, meanwhile, bluntly explained what the shell casing DNA means, regardless of the Daily Mail’s report: “That’s a pretty significant piece of evidence for the prosecution.
“And pretty damning for the defense.”
Additional lab testing in the case is pending.
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