A historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nearly every presidential election going all the way back to 1984 is speaking out about this year’s election.
History professor Allan Lichtman, a Democrat who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C., has been remarkably accurate with his predictions, with his only incorrect call coming in the 2000 race between Al Gore and George W. Bush.
Lichtman’s prediction scheme rests on 13 “Keys to the White House.” If the incumbent party candidate secures eight or more of these keys, Lichtman says, he will win the election.
The professor created the scheme in the early 1980s and says that it can be successfully employed in presidential elections going back to at least 1860, according to MarketWatch.
As the 2024 election stands, Lichtman says President Joe Biden currently has the edge, but not all his keys have been awarded.
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Biden — who many believe will eventually drop out of the race — has five of the 13 keys, while Donald Trump has three. That means five keys have yet to be secured, leaving Trump room to come from behind and take the win.
According to American University, the 13 keys are:
- Party mandate
- Contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign/military failure
- Foreign/military success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
Biden’s incumbency, of course, automatically gave him key No. 3, and he got key No. 2 because there is no serious challenger for the incumbent party nomination.
Lichtman also gave Biden both economic keys. The “short-term economy” key means the economy is not currently in recession, while the “long-term economy” key is determined by real per capita economic growth.
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Finally, Biden won key No. 7 because he implemented major policy changes.
Trump, meanwhile, has key No. 1 locked up because the Democratic Party lost seats in the House of Representatives in the last midterm elections.
Trump won key No. 12 due to Biden’s lack of charisma. So far, he is also winning key No. 11 because Biden’s foreign policy is not seeing success.
Lichtman told MarketWatch that even though Biden is ahead right now, it is still too early for him to make his official prediction for the 2024 race.
“A lot of things would have to go wrong [for the election keys] to go against Biden. … But they could. I am very careful in not making a prediction,” he said.
The professor thinks he’ll be able to make his prediction in August.
