Recent comments from public officials in both Israel and the United States have compelled us to perform ghastly calculations.
Last Monday, according to Newsweek, Israeli lawmaker Revital “Tally” Gotliv made astonishing headlines. She called for the use of a “Jericho Missile” and “Doomsday weapon” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Then, on Sunday, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war on the part of Iranian-backed Hezbollah could lead the U.S. to intervene directly against Iran.
In this era of casual talk about nuclear weapons and World War III, it behooves us to connect dots and confront the dreadful realities of what a broader conflict involving “doomsday” weapons would mean.
In short, what would it look like if Israel unleashed only a handful of “doomsday” weapons against Iran?
The “Jericho Missile,” which Gotliv wanted to use on Gaza, referred to a class of Israeli ballistic missiles that dates to the 1960s.
According to the missile information and analysis website Missile Threat, Jericho III constitutes the most modern of these missiles. It can carry a single nuclear warhead with destructive capability between 150 and 400 kilotons (kt).
Secrecy envelops much of the Israeli nuclear program. A 2009 examination conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, however, estimated Israel’s nuclear arsenal at 200-300 warheads.
Meanwhile, a separate analysis from a different Missile Threat website — this one formerly part of Claremont’s Ballistic Missile Defense Project — also indicated that Jericho III can carry “two or three low yield MIRV warheads.”
Finally, we know that the Jericho III missile can reach Iran with ease.
Thus, we can begin by assuming that each Jericho missile will carry three low-yield MIRV warheads.
Then, based on the explosive capacity of a single warhead (150-400 kt), we can estimate each MIRV warhead at a proportionally lower explosive capacity (50-133 kt). This results in an average of 90 kt for each MIRV.
We now have five Jericho III missiles carrying a total of fifteen 90 kt MIRV warheads.
If we use the NUKEMAP at Alex Wellerstein’s The Nuclear Secrecy Blog, we can estimate casualties from these 15 warheads detonating above the 15 most populous Iranian cities.
As one would expect, the exercise produces horrific results.
Tehran, for instance, has a population of nearly nine million. A nuclear detonation over Tehran would kill an estimated 644,380 and injure another 1,909,970.
Mashhad, Iran’s second-most populous city at little more than three million, would suffer nearly as many fatalities. A nuclear detonation over Mashhad would kill an estimated 568,940 and injure another 919,400.
All told, five Israeli missiles would kill approximately 4,950,680 Iranians and injure another 8,044,440.
These estimates come from simulating an airburst rather than a surface detonation.
Keep in mind that these are “low yield” nuclear warheads deliverable by Jericho III. In the context of nuclear arsenals worldwide, 90 kt falls on the weaker end of the spectrum.
For comparison’s sake, the world’s largest known nuclear weapon — the old Soviet Union’s 100 megaton thermonuclear “Tsar Bomba” — if used against Tehran would kill an estimated 11,050,920.
On the other hand, each 90 kt Jericho III nuclear warhead carries six times the destructive capacity of the 1945 Hiroshima bomb.
The conclusion leaves us staggered.
Five missiles could kill five million people in Iran. That nation has a total population of less than 90 million people.
Iran needs to be careful about what they wish for. If they want a conflict with Israel, they could lose and lose badly.
