When Vice President Kamala Harris became the de facto Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s mid-July decision to abdicate the top of the ticket in 2024, there were many initial assumptions that political prognosticators made.
One was not only a bounce in the national polls for the Democratic ticket but also, at the state level, safe blue states that had become battlegrounds reverting to safe blue status. One of these was Virginia, where numerous polls showed former President Donald Trump within the margin of error of Biden, despite the fact that Biden had handily carried the state in 2020.
“Biden is now only winning by a fraction of a point in Virginia, Maine, Minnesota, and New Mexico” — actually, it looks like the OpenLabs poll has Biden DOWN by a fraction of a point in NM and VA. @PeterHamby pic.twitter.com/jjhDY2cHQz
— Jared Walczak (@JaredWalczak) July 2, 2024
While the national polls have rebounded for the Democrats as predicted, however, Virginia might be a more complicated matter, as a recent survey attested to.
A poll of 756 likely voters in the state of Virginia, conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington, found that Harris was only ahead by two points in a two-way race and by one point when more candidates were included — both well within the 3.7 percent margin of error.
“Harris has the support of 47 percent of 756 Virginia likely voters, as compared to 46 percent favoring Trump in the survey, which includes 1,000 adult respondents and was conducted for UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies by Research America Inc. Sept. 3-9,” a media release read.
“Several third party and independent candidates received a total of four percent support in the poll, while the remaining likely voters said they were undecided.
“In a question that asked likely voters only about the major party nominees, the results also remained well within the margin of error: 48 percent favored Harris and 46 preferred Trump.”
Are you voting for Trump?
Yes: 100% (463 Votes)
No: 0% (1 Votes)
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies, said in the release.
“Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
📊 VIRGINIA poll by University of Mary Washington
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Senate
🟦 Tim Kaine (inc): 49%
🟥 Hung Cao: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
Sept. 3-9 | 756 LV | ±3.7%https://t.co/1cseQv3DYe— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2024
Virginia hasn’t really been treated as a “swing state” since the days of George W. Bush.
Barack Obama won the state in both of his presidential races by over 6 points in 2008 and roughly 4 points in 2012; Hillary Clinton carried the state by over 5 points in 2016 and Biden by over 10 in 2020.
This isn’t a whole lot better than, say, back in May, when a Roanoke College poll found that both Trump and Biden were tied at 42 percent.
It’s worth noting that poll was before Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate performance, and that this poll was also taken before the Sept. 10 three-on-one Trump vs. the moderators and Harris debate.
Nevertheless, the poll attests to a growing reality that Harris’ numbers in the polls look a lot like Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 than Joe Biden’s in 2020 — they’re OK, but given the media-gasm their candidate has been receiving and the constant harping on Trump, they should be better, particularly in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Assume — and this is a long shot, but let’s just hypothesize — that Trump were to carry Virginia. Harris would need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and one of three Sun Belt states which have trended toward Trump — Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina — to win.
Of course, if Trump were to win Virginia, it would speak more broadly to dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris White House, which would mean something that looked more like a sweep of those states plus Pennsylvania for the ticket.
What this more likely means is that more campaign resources will have to be diverted to a state that was already supposed to be sewed up. Remember, those numbers in Pennsylvania remain stubbornly close — and if Harris loses that, the same hypothetical I proposed above remains. That means that yet another chunk of resources has to be broken off to assure that it isn’t a close election night in Virginia, resources that could be better deployed in Pennsylvania or any of the other three Sun Belt states where Harris has a chance.
Whatever the case, this isn’t a good sign for the Democratic ticket — and it’s a reminder that no amount of “joy” and “vibes” can make America as forgetful as Joe Biden is about what a Biden-Harris White House has done for America.
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