Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in two of the three so-called Blue Wall states that Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris likely must win, if she hopes to prevail in the general election next month.
Quinnipiac University’s latest survey, published on Wednesday, shows Trump ahead in Michigan 50 to 47 percent and Wisconsin 48 to 46 percent, while he’s narrowed the gap in Pennsylvania with Harris, who leads the Keystone State 49 to 46 percent.
Last month in Michigan, Harris was leading the race, 50 to 45 percent, and in Wisconsin 48 to 47 percent.
And in Pennsylvania, Harris had been ahead 51 to 45 percent, so Trump has cut that margin in half in Quinnipiac’s poll.
📊 Rust Belt polling by Quinnipiac
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 50% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟨 West: 1%Last poll (9/16) – 🔵 Harris +5
——
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 48% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%Last poll – 🔵 Harris +1
——
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 49% (+3)
🟥… pic.twitter.com/lQHhO2taPt— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 9, 2024
The Real Clear Polling average shows Trump slightly ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, based on surveys going back to last month, while Harris is winning in Wisconsin by less than a percentage point.
Will Trump beat Kamala Harris by a bigger margin than he beat Hillary Clinton?
Yes: 96% (523 Votes)
No: 4% (19 Votes)
Some of the issues that Trump is performing the best among Blue Wall voters are the economy, immigration and the conflict in the Middle East, as Harris polls strongest in abortion policy.
Quinnipiac conducted its polling from Oct. 3 – 7 among likely voters.
The sampling size was 1,412 voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points; 1,007 voters in Michigan with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points; and 1,073 voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.
Quinnipiac just dropped a bomb on the Presidential polling world:
Michigan
🔴 Trump: 50%
🔵 Harris: 47%Wisconsin
🔴 Trump: 48%
🔵 Harris: 46%Pennsylvania
🔴 Trump: 46%
🔵 Harris: 49%What are your thoughts?
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 9, 2024
Trump is doing significantly better in polling against Harris than he did against Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton going into the 2016 election.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls showed Clinton with a 3.4 percent lead in Michigan, but Trump ended up carrying the state by 0.3 percent.
In Wisconsin, Clinton led 6.5 percent in polling, but lost the state by 0.7 percent to Trump.
And in Pennsylvania, the Democrat was ahead by a less robust 1.9 percent, but Trump prevailed by a 0.7 percent margin.
BREAKING: A new Quinnipiac poll out of Michigan has Trump +3
🔴Trump 50% (+3)
🔵Harris 47%The internals we’ve been hearing about sending shock waves across Democrat circles are finally reflected in public polls.
Let’s go!!
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 9, 2024
Beyond the Blue Wall, the Republican nominee leads in the swing states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, but Harris is ahead in Nevada, according to the Real Clear Polling average.
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