Kari Lake has been a star on the national Republican stage since her come-from-behind victory in the 2022 GOP gubernatorial primary race in Arizona.
Now, she appears well-poised to launch a U.S. Senate bid in the Grand Canyon State.
Ironically, the Election Day chaos last fall — when ballot printers malfunctioned in Maricopa County in as many as 132 of the 223 polling places — and her subsequent legal challenge of Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs’ win have increased Lake’s stature in the Republican Party nationally.
Hobbs carried the contest with a 0.7 percentage point margin of victory or about 17,000 votes of the approximately 2.5 million cast.
Given that Republicans typically vote 3 to 1 over Democrats on Election Day, Lake has argued that the polling station troubles were outcome-determinative.
Her election challenge is currently at the Arizona Court of Appeals, and the candidate was just in court seeking access to review the mail-in ballot envelope signatures.
In addition to the printer and resulting ballot tabulator issues on Election Day, Lake has argued, based on whistleblower testimony, that Maricopa County did not follow Arizona law in relation to signature verification for mail-in ballots.
Maricopa has denied the accusation, and a trial court judge sided with county officials in May.
Rumors of a U.S. Senate Bid
As early as January, rumors began circulating that Lake would run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema.
Sinema faced a primary challenge from Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is left of the senator politically.
Gallego voted with President Joe Biden 100 percent of the time during the last Congress, while Sinema was with him 93.3 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Sinema’s most high-profile vote against Biden was to keep the Senate filibuster rule in place when considering the Democrats’ voting rights legislation package.
In January, CNN’s Kate Sullivan tweeted, “I’m told Kari Lake is considering running for the US Senate seat held by Kyrsten Sinema in 2024.”
The Lake campaign responded at the time that the candidate was “hyper-focused” on the election challenge case.
I’m told Kari Lake is considering running for the US Senate seat held by Kyrsten Sinema in 2024.
— Kate Sullivan (@KateSullivanDC) January 16, 2023
By May, Lake had told Fox News host Piers Morgan that she was seriously considering a Senate run.
“I will run for Senate most likely if we don’t have a fair outcome in our election case,” she said.
On Tuesday, Lake posted a video clip on X that showed news coverage of her anticipated Senate candidacy. The post is captioned, “Stay tuned.”
“If they think that I’m going away, they got another thing coming,” Lake says in the video.
Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/FKJYdMaowx
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) September 26, 2023
When She’s Expected to Announce
Politico reported last week that Lake is expected to announce her candidacy next month, “according to three people familiar with her plans.”
“There is no specific date set for Lake’s launch but it will almost certainly come in the month of October, according to a person familiar with her plans who was granted anonymity to speak candidly,” the outlet reported.
Lake suggested this timeframe herself during an interview on comedienne Roseanne Barr’s podcast last week, saying she’ll probably make a decision in “a month or so.”
“I think we have to stay in it. We have too powerful of a movement. We have a chance to pick up a Senate seat right now,” Lake contended.
“If I decide to do it, I will be able to go to D.C. and help [former President Donald Trump] implement his amazing policies, which are incredibly transformative,” she added.
.@KariLake: “I want to serve the people of Arizona. They want me to serve them, and we need some leadership in DC because the people we have back there are just absolute buffoons (@RubenGallego).
So I’m considering it.” pic.twitter.com/db5ZG6uq48
— Kari Lake War Room (@KariLakeWarRoom) September 25, 2023
Further stoking speculation that a Senate candidacy announcement draws nigh, Lake and her campaign have started targeting both Gallego and Sinema in social media posts.
“Biden’s border crisis is being enabled in Arizona by his DC rubber stamps Gallego & Sinema. It’s VERY simple: we need to secure our border to protect America. We don’t need any more enablers. We need leaders willing to put their foot down & demand Joe DO HIS JOB,” Lake posted on X on Friday.
Biden’s border crisis is being enabled in Arizona by his DC rubber stamps Gallego & Sinema.
It’s VERY simple: we need to secure our border to protect America.
We don’t need any more enablers.
We need leaders willing to put their foot down & demand Joe DO HIS JOB. https://t.co/1FB6e8YpH3
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) September 22, 2023
On Tuesday, the Republican wrote, “Sinema is delusional if she thinks that [Arizonans] will swallow her moderate act again. She’s as radical as [Gallego]. The only difference is Ruben is unhinged & Kyrsten can hide it. She can pretend to be an independent but her voting record says otherwise.”
Sinema is delusional if she thinks that Arizonan’s will swallow her moderate act again.
She’s as radical as @RepRubenGallego.
The only difference is Ruben is unhinged & Kyrsten can hide it.
She can pretend to be an independent but her voting record says otherwise.…
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) September 27, 2023
On Monday, the Lake campaign posted a headline from Newsweek stating, “Krysten Sinema has voted with Joe Biden more often than Bernie Sanders.”
“Sinema votes to the far-left 94% of the time. But every once in a while, she gets permission from Chuck Schumer to vote against the party and make a spectacle of herself. The Greatest Trick Kyrsten Sinema Ever Pulled Was Convincing the World She’s a Moderate,” the campaign wrote.
Sinema votes to the far-left 94% of the time.
But every once in a while, she gets permission from Chuck Schumer to vote against the party and make a spectacle of herself.
The Greatest Trick Kyrsten Sinema Ever Pulled Was Convincing the World She’s a Moderate. pic.twitter.com/41EPoDEeDu
— Kari Lake War Room (@KariLakeWarRoom) September 26, 2023
The Polling
Lake looks to be in a good position to win the Republican primary should she jump in the Senate race.
An Emerson College poll of Arizona voters released last month found Lake with 42 percent support, followed by Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb with 11 percent and 2022 GOP Senate nominee Blake Masters with 7 percent, with 28 percent of respondents undecided.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 2 to Aug. 4 among 1,337 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
Trump called Masters in early September and told him bluntly that he could not win a race against Lake, according to The New York Times.
Would you vote for Lake?
Yes: 0% (0 Votes)
No: 0% (0 Votes)
Trump endorsed Masters for Senate and Lake for governor during their primary races last year, but the call with Masters suggests the 45th president may endorse Lake’s Senate bid this time around if she gets in the race.
Politico noted that Masters remains on the sidelines.
Public polling for the general election in the Senate race is scarce.
An O.H. Predictive Insights poll conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 9 among 1,000 registered Arizona voters showed Gallego leading a hypothetical three-way race at 34 percent support to Lake’s 26 percent and Sinema’s 19 percent, with 21 percent undecided. The margin of error was +/- 3.1 percent.
An O.H. Predictive Insights survey conducted from July 13 to July 17, again among 1,000 registered Arizona voters, found similar results: Gallego at 34 percent, Sinema at 26 and Lake at 25, with 15 percent undecided. The margin of error was +/- 3.1 percent.
In late October 2022, the polling firm correctly projected that the race for Arizona governor would be tight, finding Lake with a 2 percentage point lead over Hobbs.
Sinema, like Lake, has not announced yet if she will be a candidate in 2024.
However, NBC News reported Monday that the Sinema campaign has put together a document titled “Kyrsten’s Path to Victory” as a pitch to would-be donors.
The document says that the senator can win by garnering a coalition of 10 to 20 percent of Democrats, 60 to 70 percent of independents and 25 to 35 percent of Republicans.
A bleed-off of 25 to 35 percent of Republicans seems high, but we will see.
Lake looks very well-positioned to be the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate, and then an unpredictable three-way race, should Sinema join, will play out next fall.
