American Jews have historically voted overwhelmingly Democratic for cultural and demographic reasons. However, a shift is underway. According to a new study by Pew Research, 65 percent of Jewish voters currently back Kamala Harris, while 34 percent support Donald Trump — a figure that, if it holds, would mark one of the best Republican showings among Jewish voters in recent history. Consider that Trump won about 30 percent of the Jewish vote in 2020, matching Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance — the highest since 1988.
The potential shift is largely due to the fact that Israel’s security is no longer a strongly bipartisan issue, combined with the recent surge of anti-Semitism often associated with pro-Palestinian movements. On college campuses and elsewhere, core Democratic constituencies often support Hamas and assault Jews. And while Jewish voters care about many issues, Democratic studies show none moves them more than Israel. The Oct. 7, 2023, massacre and subsequent war have only heightened this shift.
According to YouGov, Trump voters overwhelmingly side with Israel by a 69 percent to 5 percent margin, while Harris’ supporters are more divided, with only 16 percent supporting Israel. Meanwhile, a recent CBS poll found that 77 percent of Democrats oppose supplying weapons to Israel, a stark departure from the party’s historically strong pro-Israel stance. Even when Democrats call themselves pro-Israel, their policies often differ enormously from pro-Israel Republicans.
The Jewish vote’s stability or slight shift to the right is notable amid broader demographic changes. Republicans populist shift is trading more educated, wealthier, urban, and suburban voters for working-class support. But anti-elitist messaging tends not to resonate with Jews, many of whom associate certain aspects of populism with targeting of Jews in the past. Yet, other factors appear to counter these headwinds.
