Former President Donald Trump sits in the perfect position to ask the same question of the electorate that Ronald Reagan did in both his 1980 and 1984 landslide election victories: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
Reagan posed the question in his presidential debate against incumbent Democrat President Jimmy Carter in late October 1980.
“Next Tuesday all of you will go to the polls, will stand there in the polling place and make a decision. I think when you make that decision, it might be well if you would ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago?” the Republican asked.
“Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we’re as strong as we were four years ago?” he added.
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The answer for the majority of Americans in 1980 was, “No,” and Reagan defeated Carter in a landslide — 44 states to 6.
The incumbent president seeking a second term asked the same question again at the Republican convention in 1984, saying, “In 1980 we asked the people of America, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ Well, the people answered then by choosing us to bring about a change. We have every reason now, four years later, to ask that same question again, for we have made a change.”
The American people responded to Reagan’s question with a “Yes,” and he beat Carter’s former Vice President Walter Mondale 49 states to 1.
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When Reagan took office in January 1981, the nation was entering its steepest recession since World War II, with unemployment hitting nearly 11 percent shortly into his first term.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, was 12.5 percent in 1980, and the prime interest rate was 21.5 percent in December of that year.
By 1982, two years into Reagan’s first term, inflation was down to 3.8 percent, and it remained relatively low for the rest of his time in office.
The prime interest rate had dropped to 11.75 percent by November 1984.
Unemployment had dropped to 7 percent that same month.
To get the economy moving again, Reagan enacted across-the-board tax cuts and slashed government regulations. Newly unfettered, the economy boomed, adding 3.5 million new jobs in 1983 and 3.9 million the following year.
The New York Times reported that the poverty rate dropped by the largest percentage in over a decade in 1984, with nearly 2 million people leaving the ranks of the poor that year alone.
During his eight years in office, the American economy experienced its greatest expansion since World War II, creating 18 million jobs during a time when the population was approximately 100 million less.
Trump can and should ask the same question Reagan did in 1980 and 1984: Are you better off now than you were four years ago?
Putting aside the COVID-19 pandemic of course, for a majority of Americans, the answer will be “No.”
President Joe Biden’s approval number is underwater, with approximately 39 percent approving of his job performance and 55 percent disapproving, according to the FiveThirtyEight tracking average of polls.
Further, the Real Clear Politics average shows that 37 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, while 60 percent disapprove.
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted last month found that 45 percent of Democrats and left-leaning independents said Biden’s economic policies hurt or had no positive impact on them.
“Among voters overall, 53% of voters said Biden’s policies hurt them, and less than a quarter—23%— said they were helped by his policies. Some 49% of voters said Trump’s policies personally helped them, while just 37% said they hurt them,” according to the Journal.
You know who else had approval ratings in the 30s during his re-election year of 1980? Jimmy Carter.
Trump should explicitly ask the question Reagan did.
The economy — specifically, inflation — is a top concern for voters going into the 2024 election.
“Inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, was mostly muted during Trump’s term. Annual inflation averaged roughly 1.9% between January 2017 and January 2021, and consumer prices rose about 7.8% during that time. Consumer prices have surged 17% during Biden’s term, with annual inflation averaging 5.8%,” the Journal reported.
On Tuesday, former Reagan and Trump White House economist Larry Kudlow argued on his program on Fox Business Network, “It’s the falling level of wages and the rising level of prices that has caused high anxiety over Joe Biden’s economic policies. That’s the key point. Affordability has dropped significantly over the past three years.”
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He noted that real median household income (i.e. adjusted for inflation income) rose approximately $6,000 during Trump’s first three years in office to $78,250 before dropping back about $1,600 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
In 2022 under Biden, household income stood at $74,580. In other words, it was close to $4,000 less than the 2019 peak under Trump, and $2,000 less than the 45th president’s final year in office in 2020.
Average weekly real earnings (again adjusted for inflation) for those 16 years old and over are also down from $393 in early 2020 to $365 during the third quarter of last year.
If you’re feeling like you have less buying power at the grocery store and elsewhere, it’s because you do.
A bright economic spot for Biden is that the unemployment rate remains approximately where it was under Trump in 2019, 3.7 percent. The stock market was also up significantly in 2023.
Credit Democratic Sens. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia with putting the kibosh on Biden’s plans to rescind the Trump tax cuts and thereby increase taxes on businesses, i.e., job creators.
Of course, all this economic data speaks nothing about the chaos that has hit the world scene since Trump left office.
While he was commander in chief, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un was relatively quiet. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not take more of Ukraine, a country he first invaded during the Obama-Biden administration.
Iran was on its knees economically, thanks to crushing sanctions that Trump enforced.
And Israel had entered into multiple peace treaties with Arab nations in the region with the Abraham Accords.
None of this is true under Biden. The world is on fire, and it may get worse before it gets better, assuming there is a positive change of leadership at the White House in November.
If Trump becomes the GOP nominee, and he runs against Biden, the Republican stands in a similar place to the one Reagan was in.
As with Reagan in 1980, Trump’s opponent will be a very unpopular Democrat incumbent. And, like Reagan in 1984, Trump has a record of accomplishment to run on as he seeks a second term.
The key determinative question for voters should be, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
