Think a Trump-Biden rematch will be a walk in the park, Democrats? It might be — although the numbers show that if the election were held today, the walk in the park would be Donald Trump’s, instead.
In an Emerson College poll released on Wednesday, former President Trump — the current GOP frontrunner for the nomination — led nationally by four points.
While it was within the margin of error, a 4-percentage-point lead is still nothing to scoff at — and it’s in line with a slew of recent polls that show President Joe Biden in deep water.
“A new Emerson College Polling national survey of registered voters finds former President Donald Trump with a four-point lead over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, 47% to 43%, within the poll’s margin of error,” a media release from Emerson College Polling read.
Ten percent of voters in the poll remain undecided, as well. That’s about the only good news for Biden, since his support seems to be eroding according to Emerson’s national poll. (The survey, conducted among 1,475 registered voters between Nov. 17-20, had a margin of error of 2.5 percent.)
“Since last month, Trump’s support has held at 47% while Biden’s support has decreased from 45% to 43%,” the media release read.
And the specter of third-party candidates also should have those manning the halls of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. in a tizzy.
“With third-party and independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein added to the ballot, Trump’s support decreases five points to 42%, Biden decreases seven points to 36%, while 7% support Kennedy, 1% West and Stein respectively.
“The share of undecided voters increases three points to 13%,” the media release stated.
Will Trump win in 2024?
Yes: 100% (1 Votes)
No: 0% (0 Votes)
The poll also showed Biden’s approval level dwindling, with 38 approving of the job he’s doing and 50 percent disapproving.
“The president’s disapproval has stayed the same this month, while his approval has dropped four points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“The president’s approval is the lowest it has been this calendar year, but similar to what it was this time last year when his approval was at 39 percent.”
Not only that, but identity groups that the Democrats rely on to carry them over the finishing line seem to be jumping off the sinking Biden ship.
Among black voters, there was a net 15- percent shift in the red for Biden’s lead, from a 61-point lead to a 47-point one this year.
Biden saw a similar shift with Hispanic voters, from up by 14 to up by only 3 — an 11-point drop. With women, there was an eight-point shift, from being up by 4 percentage points to down by 4 percentage points. He also went from up by 12 percent among voters under 50 to being down by 1 percent.
But then, this shouldn’t be a surprise for the looking at the poll numbers. Even NBC News’ poll — hardly coming from a hive of covert Republican sentiment, given the source — has Trump up over Biden 46-44 nationally.
Not only that, but a targeted swing-state survey from the U.K.’s Stack Data Strategy showed that Trump held significant leads in several swing states; its findings showed that while Biden might win the popular vote yet again, the model had Trump up in the Electoral College by a 292-246 margin.
“The poll shows Trump on course to win back four key swing states that Biden won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” a news release from Stack Data Strategy released last week read.
“All of these states were won by Trump in the 2016 election before flipping to Biden in the 2020 election, preventing Trump from the same path to the White House,” it continued. “These states are vital for Trump’s re-election.
“These four states had the closest margins out of all states in 2020, and Biden managed to win Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin by less than one percent of the vote. In our current projections, however, we are seeing significant swings towards Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania. In Georgia, Trump leads by 3.3% in our projection, while he is also projected to win Pennsylvania by 2.3%.”
And why shouldn’t this be the case? After all, the president seems like a brainless human puppet at this point and the policies being pushed by the wonks behind the scene are wildly unpopular and costly.
It’s time for this expensive charade to end. America, at least for the moment, seems to share in that sentiment.
