Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved six gubernatorial midterm election races to favor Democrats, though Republicans are still slated to win the majority of them.
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia’s election monitor moved the ratings for Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island. The latter three went from “likely Democratic” to “safe Democratic”; Arizona went from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic”; Ohio went from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican”; and Georgia went from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”
The current tally of governorships is 26 Republicans and 24 Democrats.
Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) had a spate of good fortune this year, with all her major rivals bowing out of the race. She now faces no serious competition. Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) opting out of reelection clears Democrats of a damaging fraud scandal, with the seat all but secured with Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-MN) entrance. Gov. Dan McKee (D-RI) holds a safe position in a deep-blue state.
With incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) departing due to term limits, Georgia has become uncertain due to a lack of a clear Republican primary front-runner. Losses in Republican gains among Hispanics since the 2024 elections bode poorly for Republicans in Arizona.
KEVIN KILEY OPEN TO CAUCUSING WITH DEMOCRATS IN NEXT TERM AFTER GOING INDEPENDENT
Ohio, despite voting for President Donald Trump in 2024 by double digits, appears much less enthused about former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who has damaged his image over controversial statements made about American culture in December 2024 during a wider debate around immigration. Current polling gives a reasonable chance that Democrat Amy Acton could outmaneuver and beat the Trump ally, with several polls putting her in the lead.
Further complicating dynamics could be a rise in energy costs over the war with Iran, which Democrats will have no problem directly connecting to Trump.
