The House seat held by Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) has shifted in Democrats’ favor after the Pennsylvania primary elections on Tuesday, spelling trouble for the former Freedom Caucus Chairman as he seeks reelection in a seat heavily coveted by the opposing party.
After Democratic candidate Janelle Stelson’s victory on Tuesday, the University of Virginia Center of Politics’s Crystal Ball Ratings shifted the race from being rated as Likely Republican to Lean Republican, making it slightly more favorable to Democrats in November. The matchup comes as Democratic groups have increasingly poured funds into the district, signaling the group considers the race a pickup opportunity as they seek to seize the House majority next year.
With such a narrow divide in the House, both Republicans and Democrats are pinpointing vulnerable seats to be flipped in their favor — with several of those running through the battleground state of Pennsylvania. Democrats have particularly targeted Perry’s seat, seeking to attack him over his defense of former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
To be sure, Perry will be tough to beat. Pennsylvania’s 10th District is rated as R+4, and Perry has the support of his GOP colleagues in the House.
However, the Freedom Caucus member must grapple with some fundraising vulnerabilities that have stagnated over the last few months due to a lawsuit Perry has filed against the federal government. That lawsuit challenges the Justice Department after it seized Perry’s phone in relation to special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s election interference case.
Perry managed to raise $500,000 during the first quarter of this year, besting Stelson’s haul of nearly $294,000. However, Perry’s cash on hand has sat still at around $500,000 over the last several quarters, giving Stelson an opportunity to catch up now that she no longer has to compete with primary challengers for Democratic fundraising.
The race rating shift to “Lean Republican” is consistent with other election forecasters, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
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All 435 House seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most held by Democrats, giving the GOP a slight possible advantage as it prepares for the current election cycle.
However, 17 of the 42 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into November.
