MERCED, California — Close House races in the mid-San Joaquin Valley 13th Congressional District are part of the central California landscape on par with the agricultural region’s sprawling farmland.
In the final House race of 2024 to be called, on Dec. 3, Rep.-elect Adam Gray (D-CA) beat freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) by 187 votes out of more than 210,000 cast. That brought the number of 2024 House member losses to 11, out of about 375 representatives who sought reelection. Four more lost renomination bids earlier in the year.
Those involuntarily departing lawmakers are among the dozens of representatives leaving at the end of the 118th Congress, on Jan. 3, 2025. So, new member churn in the 435-member House will be significant.
Some House members, more than a year and a half ago, announced retirements, or plans to run for office. And a bit over a year ago, the House also expelled a member for only the sixth time in history — former Rep. George Santos, a New York Republican, who got the boot from colleagues after the chamber’s Ethics Committee cited him for fraud and misuse of campaign funds.
The House in the incoming Congress will have a narrow edge for Republicans of 220 seats to 215 for Democrats. That made the loss in California’s 13th Congressional District a particularly agonizing one for House Republicans.
The district, anchored by the city of Merced, with a chunk of its nearly 94,000 residents being students at the University of California, Merced, was always going to be an electoral battleground. The district, located north of Fresno, once was a Democratic stronghold. With the region’s economy long hitched to agribusiness, farm labor unions, usually backing Democrats, had significant political sway. But in recent years, the Central Valley has grown to be more culturally conservative than other parts of the state, giving Republicans a fighting chance to win there.
Gray, in 2024, prevailed over Duarte, a farmer and agricultural businessman who rose to prominence tussling with federal authorities over water rights, by a 50.04%-49.96% margin. That’s effectively an inverse of the 2022 midterm election results. That year, Duarte beat Gray, finishing up a decade representing the area in the state Assembly, by 564 votes out of nearly 134,000 cast, or a 50.21%-49.79% edge for the Republican candidate.
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Some departing House members are leaving under more favorable circumstances. Several are becoming senators. Two already have. Sens. Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Adam Schiff (D-CA) left their House seats a few weeks early to replace short-term appointed incumbents for the very end of six-year Senate terms. The pair will be sworn in on Jan. 3, 2025, to begin full six-year terms.
Including Kim and Schiff, each party has six new senators. For the first time, two black women will serve simultaneously in the chamber. Sen.-elect Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) was formerly the county executive in Prince George’s County, Maryland, a quick car ride from the Capitol, and Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) will move up to the Senate after eight years in the House.
