(The Center Square) – A new national poll finds that most likely U.S. voters don’t think former President Donald Trump should be removed from primary ballots – unless he’s convicted of insurrection-related charges stemming from the 2021 protests at the U.S. Capitol. The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, comes as the U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear Trump’s appeal to a case in which the Colorado Supreme Court decided he’s disqualified from holding office, arguing his actions at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, disqualify him under the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment.
The poll surveyed 2,573 voters from Jan. 2 to 4, finding that 41% of likely voters believe the former president should be taken off the 2024 ballot because of his actions on Jan. 6, 2021.
Conversely, 40% say he should not be removed from the ballot and that “voters should decide whether he gets another term.” The poll also found 15% think Trump should be removed from ballots “only if” he’s convicted in relation to Jan. 6, and 5% say they’re “not sure.” Since Trump has not been convicted, a majority – 55% – now say he should remain on the ballot.
“Essentially, 40% of the country wants Trump off the ballot now, and 40% wants him on the ballot no matter how these legal proceedings turn out,” David Byler, chief of research for Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “If you look at the partisan breakdown, you’ll see that those groups are polarized: Republicans want Trump on the ballot, and many Democrats don’t.”
“Then there’s the swing block – 15% of voters, many of whom are True Independents – who only want Trump to be [removed from] the ballot if he’s convicted (which hasn’t happened yet),” he added.
According to the poll, 71% of Democrat respondents say Trump should be taken off the ballot regardless, and 34% of independents agree. Of Republican respondents, 71% say he should not be removed from the ballot, while 27% of independents agree.
Respondents who said Trump should be removed only with a conviction were closer among party lines, with 13% of Republicans, 15% of Democrats, and 18% of independents agreeing. Then-President Trump was impeached twice by the U.S. House of Representatives, the second time for allegedly inciting an insurrection, but he was acquitted in the Senate both times. Trump now faces various legal challenges from four separate indictments, including four federal counts from his challenging of the 2020 election results and the subsequent Jan. 6 protests and storming of the U.S. capitol.
“The right reading of this poll, in my view, is that the public is tentatively in favor of putting Trump’s name on the ballot,” Byler said. “But if Trump is convicted in court, that 15% of the vote could swing the other way – creating a majority that wants his name off the ballot. It’s a tenuous situation – and public opinion will almost certainly change as these trials unfold.”
Following the Colorado Supreme Court ruling, Democratic Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows removed Trump from the state’s 2024 presidential primary ballot. Trump has faced lawsuits trying to keep him off the ballot in multiple states, but so far, they all have been dismissed.
Colorado’s secretary of state included Trump on the certified statewide Republican presidential primary ballot due to a stipulation in the state Supreme Court’s ruling that automatically placed him on the ballot when the case was appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump will only be removed if the U.S. Supreme Court rules he’s ineligible.
Trump holds a wide lead among Republican primary candidates, according to The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll.
The poll from Noble Predictive Insights surveyed about an even number of Republicans and Democrats as well as 266 “true independents,” which are independents who indicated they do not lean toward either party. The poll has a margin of error of about 2%.
