A strong pro-Israel lobbying group and a cryptocurrency super PAC saw their influence fall short in Illinois’s Democratic primaries on Tuesday, with many of their preferred candidates failing to advance despite millions of dollars spent boosting their campaigns.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee invested millions into several House contests, hoping to box out progressive, anti-Israel candidates from winning safe Democratic strongholds. Their efforts proved successful in two districts, but often at the expense of their own preferred candidate.
Only two of AIPAC’s four backed candidates are advancing to the general election: Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller in the 2nd District and former Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean in the 8th District. The group’s other two preferred candidates, Melissa Conyears-Ervin in the 7th District and state Sen. Laura Fine in the 9th District, did not win.
Big spending on behalf of cryptocurrency also seeped into Tuesday’s primaries in Illinois, with only one of the super PAC Fairshake’s four preferred contenders prevailing.
The millions of dollars seeking to influence the outcome of Illinois’s races have been met with criticism from both winners and losers of these contests, sending a warning signal to major PACs and industries that the 2026 elections may be harder to influence than in previous cycles.
In the 2024 election, AIPAC’s efforts successfully led to the ousting of two House Democratic incumbents. The group dumped over $100 million into either removing critics of Israel or preventing them from entering Congress.
In the 2025 and 2026 elections, the lobbying group has taken a much more muted approach, though AIPAC did put its thumb on the scale in two notable recent House races: a special election in New Jersey and a North Carolina primary involving longtime Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC) and her left-flank progressive challenger, whom she ultimately defeated.
But by and large, the pro-Israel group is keeping things relatively calm, as public opinion is shifting on Israel in the wake of the ongoing war in Gaza and the recent joint attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel.
A Quinnipiac University survey from last week found that 62% of Democrats think the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, with 22% thinking the support is just right and 8% arguing it is not enough. An NBC poll released Monday found just 32% of Americans view Israel positively, with most of the decline in approval due to opinions souring among Democrats and independents.
AIPAC faces New Jersey-lite outcome in Illinois’s 9th District
In Illinois, AIPAC used several pop-up shell PACs to funnel money for negative advertising rather than using its main super PAC, the United Democracy Project, per an analysis from Politico.
The lobbying group celebrated Illinois’ rejection of a “half a dozen anti-Israel candidates” in several seats, including progressives Kat Abughazaleh and Bushra Amiwala in the 9th District, in a statement on Tuesday night.
“These results further demonstrate that campaigns defined largely by opposition to AIPAC, our members, and the values we represent continue to fall short on election night,” AIPAC said.
The group noted it was “especially proud” to help defeat Abughazaleh. But that did come at a cost. AIPAC allies spent nearly $4 million attacking Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, which allowed Abughazaleh to gain significant momentum in the final stretch of the race.
Though AIPAC did pull back all of its anti-Biss messaging and shifted its attacks toward Amiwala to split the progressive vote, it was not enough to help Fine. She came in third place behind Biss and Abughazaleh.
AIPAC experienced a similar situation in New Jersey, pouring over $2 million into the special election to attack former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who had called himself pro-Israel but said he was open to putting conditions on aid to the Jewish state. But that money largely helped progressives, allowing for social justice activist Analilia Mejia to win the primary over Malinowski, which infuriated centrist Democrats.
“Most of the political ecosystem was a mixture of dumbfounded and furious after they handed a victory to an anti-semitic Israel hater in New Jersey, by trying to play puppet master and thinking that they were playing three dimensional chess, but actually shooting their own allies and their own movement in the foot,” a Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak freely told the Washington Examiner.
United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, did not appear to have any regrets at the time. Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for the United Democracy Project, said in an interview with The Times of Israel that the PAC will “have a focus on stopping candidates who are detractors of Israel or who want to put conditions on aid.”
Though AIPAC successfully staved off an Abughazaleh win, Biss is on track to be one of the most progressive House Democrats in the Illinois delegation.
The mayor said in his victory speech that the 9th District “understands nuance” on Israel and Gaza. He added that AIPAC tried “to buy this seat, to support the idea that we can’t accept nuance.”
“AIPAC found out the hard way: the 9th District is not for sale,” Biss said.
Congressional progressives also celebrated Biss’s victory over AIPAC on social media.
“After AIPAC spent $6 million trying to defeat him, progressive @DanielBiss just won his primary in Chicago,” Congressional Progressive Caucus chairman Greg Casar (D-TX) said in a post on X. “Congratulations to our newest Progressive Caucus member and his supporters on this hard fought victory over big money.”
The Democratic strategist noted that Biss was the “left-of-center, common sense person,” which is a win for AIPAC, but the group still has “very significant baggage and reputational problems.” They pointed to the shell PACs the lobbying organization used and to ads that focus on issues other than Israel as signs that AIPAC is listening to criticism.
However, everyone still knows AIPAC is putting its thumb on the scale.
“You can say they’re kind of getting it, but it’s not as if they’re playing completely sophisticated operations,” the strategist said. “Because everyone still knows that it’s AIPAC behind these various, alternatively named super PACs. So the person on whose behalf their spending still gets, you know, in the press and among high information voters loaded up with their baggage.”
One Democratic lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak freely, told the Washington Examiner that they didn’t think it was right for AIPAC to get involved in Illinois primaries by hiding behind shell PACs.
“Voters need to be able to trust the source of where things are coming,” the lawmaker said. “I don’t think it’s right for any group, whether it’s a PAC or another group, to use its money to then pretend it’s a different organization entirely, with a different mission.”
“I don’t think they understand the extent to which their brand has been totally and completely eroded by their behavior,” the lawmaker added.
Cryptocurrency tries to stake claim in Illinois to little avail
In the 2nd District, Democrats were battling each other to replace Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL), who ran an unsuccessful campaign for the Senate seat. But there was also a battle between AIPAC and pro-cryptocurrency groups as each spent heavily in the district.
Crypto invested heavily in backing former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. by over $1 million. AIPAC allies were concerned about Miller succeeding in the race, but Miller had a resounding win over the late Rev. Jesse Jackson’s son by over 11 points.
Fairshake, a cryptocurrency super PAC, invested over $10 million to support Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) in the primary, with a total of $13 million spent across Illinois races. An affiliated group, Protect Progress, invested $400,000 to oppose Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who defeated Krishnamoorthi and Kelly on Tuesday night.
Kelly had previously pledged not to accept contributions from AIPAC and has stated that Israel is waging a genocide in Gaza. AIPAC ignored Krishnamoorthi in its statement praising Stratton’s win over Kelly, “whose most recent actions have undermined the U.S.-Israel relationship.”
“Americans understand that the U.S.-Israel partnership strengthens American security and advances shared democratic values,” AIPAC said. “As the primary season continues, AIPAC’s 6.5 million grassroots members remain committed to supporting Democrats and Republicans who support a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and helping defeat those who don’t.”
The Washington Examiner reached out to both Abughazaleh and AIPAC for comment.
