Fears that a fractured Democratic field could produce a shocking result in California’s gubernatorial election have prompted the state’s party chair to implore candidates who can’t realistically win to drop out.
In an open letter to the crowded field vying to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rusty Hicks warned that infighting and ego-driven campaigns risked handing Republicans a viable path to the governor’s mansion.
“It is imperative that every candidate honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign,” Hicks wrote, conceding his appeal would be difficult and possibly unpopular within his own party.
Despite Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the deep-blue state and nearly two decades of dominance, strategists have started to worry that the state’s “jungle primary” system could scramble expectations.
Under the system, the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. With nearly a dozen Democrats splitting the vote, party officials fear Republicans could consolidate behind fewer candidates and capture both general-election slots, locking Democrats out entirely.
“Chair Hicks’ communique to Democratic candidates illustrates the growing party concern that Democrats may inflict their doomsday scenario: a November general election without a Democrat on the ballot,” Jeff Le, managing principal at 100 Mile Strategies, told the Washington Examiner. “A June primary lockout is a Republican dream and their only viable path to occupying the governor’s office, where they are significant 2026 underdogs.”
Hicks framed the race not simply as a state contest but as a national political battleground unfolding while President Donald Trump occupies the White House. A Republican governor in California would weaken Democratic resistance to the administration and undermine the party’s broader electoral strategy, he argued.
“[S]o much is at stake in our Nation and so many are counting on the leadership of California Democrats to stand up and speak out at this historic moment,” Hicks wrote, warning that California’s influence would diminish without a Democratic successor to Newsom.
He urged struggling candidates to withdraw before Friday’s filing deadline, a clear attempt to thin the field before ballots are finalized.
The stakes of the governor’s race extend beyond Sacramento. Democrats fear a November ballot without a Democrat at the top of the ticket could depress turnout statewide, threatening congressional races critical to the party’s hopes of reclaiming the House majority.
“The result would present a real risk to winning the congressional seats required and imperil Democrats’ chances to retake the House, cut Donald Trump’s term in half, and spare our Nation from the pain many have endured since January 2025,” Hicks wrote. “We simply can’t let that happen.”
The Republican National Committee called Hicks’s letter a sign of weakness.
“Democrats throw a massive hissy fit and change the rules when they start to lose,” RNC spokesman Nick Poche told the Washington Examiner. “California Democrats’ pathetic attempt at threatening their candidates to deny Californians free choice proves that Democrats are directionless, disorganized, and destined to lose in November up and down the ballot.”
Three Democrats — former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and billionaire Tom Steyer — and two Republicans — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — are within 4 percentage points of one another, according to the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California survey. All five candidates are also within the 3.9% margin of error heading into the June primary, underscoring how unsettled the race remains.
“There comes a time in every campaign when an honest assessment is called for about whether it has the necessary resources to be viable, let alone competitive,” veteran California-based political strategist Garry South told the Washington Examiner. “I ran a campaign for governor — Gavin Newsom’s first race in 2008-09 — in which a decision was made to drop out because we had run out of money. The Newsom example also shows a candidate can live to fight another day.”
TWO GROUPS FORM IN CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR’S RACE, BUT STILL NO CLEAR FRONT-RUNNER
Political strategist Kaivan Shroff told the Washington Examiner the Democratic Party needed more leaders such as Hicks to make tough calls.
“People like to rail against the ‘establishment’ but it takes strategy and planning to win,” Shroff said. “It would be such an unnecessary own goal if Dems allow Republicans to win here for zero reason.”
