Democrats’ chances of recapturing the House in the 2026 elections have been steadily increasing, amid President Donald Trump’s low approval rating, historical trends, and the cost of living.
An analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report reported that 5 competitive seats shifted toward Democrats and one toward Republicans, as Democrats eye recapturing the House for the last two years of Trump’s second term.
Most notably, Rep. Rob Bresnahan’s (R-PA) seat moved from “Lean R” to a “toss-up,” after he won by just 2% in 2024. Bresnahan is a freshman congressman who has struck a bipartisan tone by siding with Democrats on issues such as extending the Affordable Care Act subsidies and enhanced tax credits. His district spans much of Northeastern Pennsylvania, which Trump won by about 8% in 2024.
Bresnahan marks 14 toss-up seats for Republicans, compared to just three for Democrats, according to Cook’s analysis.
Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH), who represents much of Cincinnati, has moved out of “toss-up” territory, and his competitive Cincinnati-based seat is rated “Lean D.” Landsman won by 9% in 2024. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the seat by 6% despite losing to Trump nationally.
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar’s (R-FL) race was moved from “Solid R” to “Likely R.” The Florida congresswoman represents the South Miami area and has rebuked Trump’s use of Immigration and Customs Enforcement following the killings in Minneapolis earlier this year. In 2024, Salazar won reelection by 60.4%, while Trump defeated Harris by 57%-to-42%.
Meanwhile, both Reps. Nellie Pou (D-NJ) and Emilia Sykes (D-OH) saw their seats move from “Lean D” to “Likely D.” Pou won in 2024 by 5%, while Harris carried the seat by 12%. Sykes’s won by 2%, matching the margin that Harris won the seat by against Trump.
The sole Republican who was spared in this shift was Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-CO), whose seat that sits in Western part of Colorado, moved from “Likely R” to “Solid R.” This comes after President Donald Trump withdrew his support of Hurd for his vote to repeal the administration’s tariffs on Canada, but just weeks later in a rare change in tune, Trump re-endorsed the Colorado congressman. Hurd won his 2024 race by 5%, as Trump carried the district by nearly 10%.
OVER 30 DEMOCRATS WANT TRUMP REMOVE USING 25TH AMENDMENT OVER IRAN WAR
“Together with them, we decided that Congressman Jeff Hurd, of Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, should in no way, shape, or form, be impeded from winning the District in that the Democrat alternative is a DISASTER for our Country,” the president wrote. “Therefore, I will be fully supporting Jeff’s Re-Election to the House of Representatives, giving him my Complete and Total Endorsement!”
Hurd later thanked the president for his “efforts to unify Republicans in Colorado’s Third District.”
