Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley deployed a new strategy this week in a bid to gain on former President Donald Trump in her home state of South Carolina, and it’s remarkably similar to that of former presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who recently ended his campaign.
Haley is leaning into her past position of South Carolina governor to remind voters in her home state, who haven’t seen her on a ballot in nearly 10 years, of her accomplishments in the Palmetto State, long before she was tapped to join the Trump administration.
Haley’s refined strategy is reminiscent of the message DeSantis hoped to relay to voters during his 2024 bid. The governor had made his conservative record leading Florida the focal point of his campaign, looking to convince Republicans that he had the best credentials to run the country.
DeSantis, however, suspended his 2024 campaign following a disappointing distant second place in the Iowa Republican caucuses, but strategists say it may be just what Haley needs as she stakes her presidential hopes on the Feb. 24 primary in her “sweet state” of South Carolina.
“It’s a long shot, but it’s probably the best shot,” John Mark Hansen, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, said of the strategy.
Todd Belt, director of the political management master’s program at George Washington University, noted after Haley left office in South Carolina that voters have more recently supported Trump-aligned politicians in the state.
“Haley is trying to reconnect with voters in her home state who haven’t voted for her in a while,” Belt said.
The new ad campaign, titled “It’s A Great Day In South Carolina,” is designed to “combat Donald Trump’s lies and remind South Carolina voters about her many successes as governor,” according to a press release.
In a video to highlight her accomplishments, Haley says, “The great people of South Carolina know I cut their taxes.”
“They know I signed the toughest immigration bill in the country. They know we passed voter ID, and tort reform, and ethics reform, and they know we moved 35,000 people from welfare to work,” she said.
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The former ambassador was elected twice by South Carolinians and served two terms, from 2011 to 2017, before joining the Trump administration.
While Haley, who is double digits behind Trump in South Carolina just weeks from the primary, faces an uphill battle, her new tactic could show promise, according to some.
Columbia University political science professor Robert Shapiro advised that Haley emphasize her past as governor and further contrast it “with Trump falling short in delivering on what he said he wanted to do.” This is something DeSantis made attempts to do, particularly pointing to the southern border wall being unfinished.
Republican strategist Doug Heye ceded that the ground Haley still needs to make up is significant but claimed, “This argument can potentially sway South Carolina voters who remain on the fence.”
In a new Monmouth University-Washington Post poll, more than half of Republican primary voters in South Carolina plan to vote for Trump at 58%. This number is an improvement for the former president, who posted 46% in September. Haley is far behind Trump, with 32% support in her home state. However, Haley’s numbers are up by 18 points.
While the new strategy appears similar to that of DeSantis, some political scientists and Republican strategists suggested otherwise.
“The difference between what Haley is doing and DeSantis tried is Haley is doing it in her home state,” said Republican strategist Susan Del Percio. DeSantis, she explained, was selling the Florida blueprint to America. Haley is specifically looking to jog South Carolinians’ memories ahead of the pivotal Feb. 24 primary, she said.
DeSantis’s deployment of the tactic failed because he “couldn’t make his record in Florida relatable to Iowa voters,” said fellow GOP strategist Ron Bonjean.
“Haley had a generally traditionally conservative term, whereas DeSantis seemed to only want to play in the ‘culture wars,’” said Scott Huffmon, director of the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University.
Others, however, were skeptical about the potential for Haley’s latest move to boost her support.
“Big comebacks are not entirely unheard of in politics, but they are exceedingly rare,” said University at Buffalo associate professor of political science Jacob Neiheisel.
“It would take something more than just reminding Republicans in South Carolina of her record as governor to change their minds,” he added. Presidential campaigns, he said, are typically only able to move the needle at the margins.
If the race were to change drastically at any point, he suggested it would be due to an external factor. In the case of 2024, however, the potential for an event that changes the race’s landscape is significant given the two most popular candidates’ advanced ages and Trump’s multiple criminal and legal battles playing out ahead of the election.
Even if Haley’s move were to prove effective in South Carolina, there is no guarantee she would be able to go much further. “I don’t know how well gubernatorial success in South Carolina will resonate with the rest of the country,” said Lisa Bryant, political science department chairwoman at California State University, Fresno.
In particular, South Carolina isn’t lauded as an economic powerhouse the way Florida, Texas, and California are, she said. Considering this, the translation of governor to president for a former Palmetto State governor is harder for voters to see.
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Another reason why a gubernatorial record didn’t get DeSantis far and likely wouldn’t carry Haley to a win is that presidential politics are primarily about national issues, said the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Kyle Kondik.
“One theme of polling throughout this GOP presidential cycle has been that home state candidates were not getting much of a boost,” Kondik said.
