Former President Donald Trump has a commanding lead ahead of his opponents in polling of the Iowa caucuses, but several factors could provide an unexpected result Monday night.
In the months leading up to the first-in-the-nation caucuses, Trump has strengthened his double-digit lead over competitors, with polls showing the support of more than half of Iowa Republicans. But the caucuses have yielded unpredictable results in the past, and the snowy forecast, same-day voter registration, and potential for persuasion could hand another candidate a victory.
Winter weather
Iowans could be in store for a record-breaking cold caucus night as forecasts predict temperatures hitting as low as minus 9 degrees in the state. The caucuses have been held since 1972, and the temperature on caucus night hasn’t fallen below 16 degrees.
Recent snowstorms have left a significant amount of snow on the ground across the state, threatening driving conditions, and strong wind chills are expected going into the evening.
Such weather could make it difficult for caucusgoers, particularly those in more rural areas and older voters. Younger voters and those in urban and even suburban areas might be at an advantage and thus overrepresented in the final tallies.
Same-day registration
In Iowa, voters can register up through caucus day. If someone will be 18 by the election, he or she may also participate in the caucuses. Republicans have raised concerns over this practice, suggesting it allows Democrats to register and participate in the caucuses and affect the outcomes.
The Iowa Republican Party said this wasn’t a significant concern, adding it has confidence in Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird to enforce the law if anyone tries to participate in both parties’ caucuses illegally.
The same-day voter registration in Iowa could give first-time caucus attendees, who are expected to come out largely in favor of Trump, an easier time, according to a recent poll.
Caucus format
The caucuses, which differ from a traditional primary, allow voters a chance to persuade their fellow caucusgoers. “Things can change in the room on caucus night,” according to Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, who spoke to the Washington Examiner last year.
“That is — people walk in, expecting to do something, but they might be persuaded to do something else,” she said.
One backer of former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Marlys Popma, a former GOP operative, echoed that the “caucuses are a different animal than a primary.”
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On some occasions, caucusgoers will spend hours in discussion, she explained to the Washington Examiner last year. She also predicted that “a good percentage” will walk into their caucus undecided and that their decision will come down to the advocates and arguments for each candidate.
Trump has several high-profile surrogates in Iowa, while he also has a number of Iowa leaders caucusing in his favor. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has also amassed some significant Iowa endorsements across the state who could be influential in the caucus room.
