The $95 billion in foreign aid that passed the House last week could arrive on President Joe Biden’s desk as soon as Tuesday if the Senate agrees to fast-track the legislation.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has promised to move “expeditiously” on the aid, which provides funding to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. But the timing will depend on whether his GOP colleagues, bitterly divided over the conflict with Russia, agree to cooperate.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), who opposes the Ukraine portion, has already thrown up one procedural hurdle before the chamber takes a test vote on Tuesday afternoon, and Schumer will face further delays as senators lobby to make last-minute changes to the bill.
Lee wants to force Ukraine to repay the $9 billion in “forgivable loans” earmarked for economic assistance, with the proceeds used to pay down the national debt. Under the current legislation, the president can forgive those loans starting in 2026.
Meanwhile, progressives will have demands of their own, particularly on Israel. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wants to condition the aid as Democrats voice outrage over the thousands of civilian deaths in Gaza.
Schumer will not risk changing the legislation and sending it back to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) faces a GOP mutiny over his decision to put the bill on the floor. But he will, in all likelihood, offer a series of token votes that fail, clearing the way for final passage.
If Schumer cannot reach a deal to fast-track the legislation, he can run out the legislative clock and pass it a day later, on Wednesday night. Lawmakers will then skip town to salvage the remainder of a scheduled Senate recess.
The outcome of Tuesday’s test vote will be anticlimactic. A similar bill passed the chamber in mid-February with the backing of 70 Democrats and Republicans. But it will once again lay bare divisions in Washington over two U.S. allies who once enjoyed virtually unanimous support.
Republicans have grown increasingly skeptical of the war in Ukraine, which entered its third year in February. The aid, totaling more than $60 billion, became wrapped up in demands for border security, as conservatives argued America should protect its own borders before it protects those of another country. But Republicans dropped their border demands after an attempt at compromise fell apart.
Twenty-two Senate Republicans, less than half of the GOP conference, ultimately voted for the foreign aid bill.
More could be supportive this time around, citing the loan requirement that Johnson added at the request of former President Donald Trump. But others have called the wording of the loan provision a gimmick, while many more will reject the legislation over its lack of border measures.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of the Senate’s biggest defense hawks, voted against the original legislation but has promoted the loan requirement in recent weeks. He is a close ally of Trump.
Democrats will be far more unified on the bill despite their growing resistance to Israel’s conflict with Hamas. The legislation includes $9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza, a red line for the party in negotiations with Republicans, but it lacked the conditions demanded by progressives on how Israel must conduct its military operations.
Two Democrats plus Sanders, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, voted against the foreign aid in February.
At the insistence of Johnson, the updated legislation includes language that allows the United States to use seized Russian assets to pay for the war in Ukraine. A bill that could ban TikTok is also riding on the bill. None of the changes are considered poison pills that could derail its passage.
Johnson cleared the legislation in his own chamber on Saturday with less than a majority of his conference behind him, raising the prospect he will face an attempt by hard-line Republicans to oust him in the coming days. However, Democrats are expected to provide the votes to neutralize that threat.
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Biden pledged to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy in a Monday call that his administration would “quickly provide significant new security assistance” once the Senate passes the legislation.
He first released his proposal for additional aid in December.
