Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is fighting for his political life as he attempts to hold on to his Senate seat in Republican-heavy Montana, but a poll shows him trailing his Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy.
A poll from Hill-Emerson College released on Thursday shows Sheehy leading Tester, 48%-46%, with the Republican challenger taking the lead over the incumbent Democrat since the last survey from the pollster in March, which showed Tester leading Sheehy, 44%-42%.
“The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefited with a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support has only increased by two points,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.
The survey showing Sheehy’s lead was conducted from Aug. 5-6 with 1,000 likely voters in the Treasure State, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
With Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) not seeking reelection to his seat, Tester is widely regarded as the most vulnerable incumbent senator seeking reelection in November. The Montana Democrat is one of several incumbent Senate Democrats attempting to keep their seats while seeking reelection in a swing state or heavily Republican state. Democrats hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans are keen on flipping that advantage in November.
In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump holds a 55%-40% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the state. Democrats have not won Montana in the presidential race since 1992, and before that, it had not been won by a Democrat since 1964.
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Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Bozeman, Montana, on Friday evening in support of Sheehy.
The Montana Senate race has been rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report. The presidential race in the state has been rated as “solid Republican.”
