A growing number of House vacancies are giving governors the power to hold seats open indefinitely, casting uncertainty over Republicans’ narrow control of the lower chamber.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) has yet to release a time frame for a special election following the death of Texas Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner last week. Republicans, meanwhile, fear that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) will slow-walk the special election for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who will soon resign to become President Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.
The vacancies are not expected to shift control of the chamber once elections are eventually held — Turner’s seat is reliably blue and Stefanik’s comfortably red — but with among the smallest margins in House history, every seat matters on contentious votes.
As of now, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can afford to lose two Republicans, requiring near unanimity from his conference.
Turner, a freshman member of Congress and the former mayor of Houston, died at 70. After recovering from bone cancer in 2022, he announced he was “cancer-free.” Turner filled the vacancy of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, a longtime House Democrat who represented Texas’s 18th Congressional District.
State law requires that Abbott schedule the special election within about two months after he calls one if it is held as an emergency election, but there is not a set deadline when the governor must make the initial announcement.
Last year, Abbott did not call an emergency special election after Jackson Lee’s death and just held the race on the same day as the general election. If he were to do so again, the next regularly scheduled election is set for the first Saturday in May.
“An announcement on a special election will be made at a later date,” said Andrew Mahaleris, a press secretary for Abbott.
The special election for Stefanik’s seat in New York’s 21st District is another that could also be held up as politics delay her resignation. She was nominated as U.N. ambassador months ago, yet her Senate confirmation vote remains in limbo.
The election date is viewed as a possible bargaining chip as the White House moves to oppose New York’s plan for congestion pricing. The New York Legislature, run by Democrats, had been considering a bill that would delay special elections until November, but a vote on the bill was paused, apparently at the urging of Hochul.
In theory, Hochul has a 10-day window to set a date once Stefanik resigns.
As of now, there are a couple of contenders for Turner’s seat.
Isaiah Martin, a former staffer for Jackson Lee, ran a prior campaign that raised around $400,000. The 26-year-old is a Houston native who has over a quarter million followers on TikTok, where he posts political content and livestreams daily.
Martin confirmed to the Washington Examiner he is strongly considering announcing his campaign next week. He would be launching his campaign with a little more than $174,000 left from his prior run.
“I built such a strong platform across all platforms, and I spent the last couple months going on TikTok live every single day, so I’ve talked to 30,000 people a day, every single day for the last odd months or so,” Martin told the Washington Examiner.
“I think having an influencer in Congress, someone who understands that mindset, is going to be very important in the next direction where we want to go,” he continued.
Amanda Edwards, a former at-large member of the Houston City Council and native Houstonian, is another possible contender. She previously ran against Jackson Lee in a tough primary early last year in which Jackson Lee ultimately came out on top before her death later that year.
Her team has not confirmed if she will run yet.
For Stefanik’s seat, New York Assemblyman Chris Tague and former congressional candidate Liz Joy are among the names being floated as GOP contenders.
“Hochul definitely didn’t do us any favors when she said she was going to hold up the election,” Martin told the Washington Examiner.
