Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,
The Taliban returned to power three years ago on 15 August 2021 after capturing Kabul amidst the panicked Western withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Most of the world has since forgotten about that country due to the Ukrainian Conflict, however, which is why it’s worthwhile updating everyone about what’s happening there.
What follows are the ten things that folks should know about Afghanistan.
1. American Sanctions Remain A Major Impediment To Socio-Economic Recovery
The US continues to sanction Afghanistan and freeze those of its assets that that the former government placed within its jurisdiction. This has impeded the country’s socio-economic recovery, though that was precisely the point. The US hopes that the difficult living conditions that it contributed to creating might one day give rise to a rebellion that could threaten the Taliban’s control of the country.
2. The Taliban Has Yet To Form An Ethno-Politically Inclusive Government
The Taliban previously pledged to form an inclusive government, which observers interpreted as a commitment to elevate the roles of ethnic minorities and the opposition, but that has yet to come to pass. They’ve also imposed restrictions on woman since returning to power. These policies have served as the pretext for the international community’s refusal to recognize their government’s legitimacy.
3. Afghanistan’s Astronomically Large Rare Earth Deposits Are Still Untapped
The lack of formal recognition has complicated the Taliban’s plans to profit from the estimated $1 trillion worth of rare earth minerals under Afghanistan’s soil, which could make it integral to global supply chains one day. Its economy could also be revolutionized if production facilities are established inside the country and these serve as anchors for more diverse foreign investments.
4. Opium Production Is Practically Non-Existent After The Taliban Banned It
The Talban banned opium cultivation eight months after returning to power, which led to a whopping 95% reduction in production. Afghanistan is now no longer the world’s opium capital, but it’s struggled to replace this crop with other ones, thus leaving some farmers out of work. They might in turn become more susceptible to joining terrorist groups in order to replace their lost income.
5. ISIS-K Hasn’t Been Wiped Out Despite The Taliban’s Best Efforts
ISIS-K is the only force inside of Afghanistan capable of toppling the Taliban, but they haven’t been wiped out despite the latter’s best efforts over the past three years. They continue to recruit new members over social media, train some of them, and plan attacks from their sanctuaries there. The Taliban requires more intelligence and better arms in order to quash this global threat once and for all.
6. The Taliban’s Ties With Former Patron Pakistan Have Deteriorated
The expectation that some had of Pakistan restoring its influence over Afghanistan upon the Taliban’s return to power were shattered after the group turned against its patron by hosting “Pakistani Taliban” (TTP) militants that Islamabad considers to be terrorists. Tensions between these two have pushed them to the brink of war, but cooler heads have prevailed thus far, though they might not prevail forever.
7. A Planned Canal Has Worsened Relations With The Central Asian Republics
Afghanistan’s ties with Pakistan aren’t the only ones to deteriorate over the past three years since the Taliban’s planned Qosh Tepa Canal has worsened relations with the Central Asian Republics. Ties with secular Tajikistan were already troubled since it objects to the fundamentalist Taliban’s alleged mistreatment of its co-ethnics but this brings Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan on its bad side too.
8. India And The Taliban Surprisingly Patched Up Their Prior Problems
Taliban-Pakistani tensions aided the group’s rapprochement with India, against whom it used to train Kashmiri militants, but integration into its North-South Transport Corridor has yet to be completed due to the aforesaid problems with the Central Asian Republics and Iran. Even so, this might have influenced their decision to recognize Kashmir as separate from Pakistan, which aligns with India’s interests.
9. Russia Might Become The First Country To Recognize The Taliban’s Government
Economic and security interests are responsible for Russia officially considering lifting the Taliban’s terrorist designation and subsequently recognizing its government. The Kremlin wants to tap into Afghanistan’s astronomically large mineral deposits that the Soviets first discovered, utilize the country’s transregional connectivity potential, and facilitate the Taliban’s anti-terrorist operations against ISIS-K.
10. Afghanistan Can Play A Pivotal Role In Eurasia’s Multipolar Integration
Last but not least, the restoration of Afghanistan’s independence after two decades of Western occupation enables it to play a pivotal role in Eurasia’s multipolar integration, though ties with its neighbors must improve before that happens. In that event, it can facilitate North-South trade between Russia/Central Asia and Pakistan/India and East-West trade between Iran and Central Asia/China.
As can be seen, while Afghanistan no longer functions as a US airbase in the Eurasian Heartland, it’s now a source of unconventional threats to the region after the Taliban returned to power via its hosting of the TTP, its controversial canal plans, and failure to defeat ISIS-K.
Nevertheless, Afghanistan has more geostrategic potential than ever before, but it must resolve these issues in order to capitalize upon this.
Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,
The Taliban returned to power three years ago on 15 August 2021 after capturing Kabul amidst the panicked Western withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Most of the world has since forgotten about that country due to the Ukrainian Conflict, however, which is why it’s worthwhile updating everyone about what’s happening there.
What follows are the ten things that folks should know about Afghanistan.
1. American Sanctions Remain A Major Impediment To Socio-Economic Recovery
The US continues to sanction Afghanistan and freeze those of its assets that that the former government placed within its jurisdiction. This has impeded the country’s socio-economic recovery, though that was precisely the point. The US hopes that the difficult living conditions that it contributed to creating might one day give rise to a rebellion that could threaten the Taliban’s control of the country.
2. The Taliban Has Yet To Form An Ethno-Politically Inclusive Government
The Taliban previously pledged to form an inclusive government, which observers interpreted as a commitment to elevate the roles of ethnic minorities and the opposition, but that has yet to come to pass. They’ve also imposed restrictions on woman since returning to power. These policies have served as the pretext for the international community’s refusal to recognize their government’s legitimacy.
3. Afghanistan’s Astronomically Large Rare Earth Deposits Are Still Untapped
The lack of formal recognition has complicated the Taliban’s plans to profit from the estimated $1 trillion worth of rare earth minerals under Afghanistan’s soil, which could make it integral to global supply chains one day. Its economy could also be revolutionized if production facilities are established inside the country and these serve as anchors for more diverse foreign investments.
4. Opium Production Is Practically Non-Existent After The Taliban Banned It
The Talban banned opium cultivation eight months after returning to power, which led to a whopping 95% reduction in production. Afghanistan is now no longer the world’s opium capital, but it’s struggled to replace this crop with other ones, thus leaving some farmers out of work. They might in turn become more susceptible to joining terrorist groups in order to replace their lost income.
5. ISIS-K Hasn’t Been Wiped Out Despite The Taliban’s Best Efforts
ISIS-K is the only force inside of Afghanistan capable of toppling the Taliban, but they haven’t been wiped out despite the latter’s best efforts over the past three years. They continue to recruit new members over social media, train some of them, and plan attacks from their sanctuaries there. The Taliban requires more intelligence and better arms in order to quash this global threat once and for all.
6. The Taliban’s Ties With Former Patron Pakistan Have Deteriorated
The expectation that some had of Pakistan restoring its influence over Afghanistan upon the Taliban’s return to power were shattered after the group turned against its patron by hosting “Pakistani Taliban” (TTP) militants that Islamabad considers to be terrorists. Tensions between these two have pushed them to the brink of war, but cooler heads have prevailed thus far, though they might not prevail forever.
7. A Planned Canal Has Worsened Relations With The Central Asian Republics
Afghanistan’s ties with Pakistan aren’t the only ones to deteriorate over the past three years since the Taliban’s planned Qosh Tepa Canal has worsened relations with the Central Asian Republics. Ties with secular Tajikistan were already troubled since it objects to the fundamentalist Taliban’s alleged mistreatment of its co-ethnics but this brings Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan on its bad side too.
8. India And The Taliban Surprisingly Patched Up Their Prior Problems
Taliban-Pakistani tensions aided the group’s rapprochement with India, against whom it used to train Kashmiri militants, but integration into its North-South Transport Corridor has yet to be completed due to the aforesaid problems with the Central Asian Republics and Iran. Even so, this might have influenced their decision to recognize Kashmir as separate from Pakistan, which aligns with India’s interests.
9. Russia Might Become The First Country To Recognize The Taliban’s Government
Economic and security interests are responsible for Russia officially considering lifting the Taliban’s terrorist designation and subsequently recognizing its government. The Kremlin wants to tap into Afghanistan’s astronomically large mineral deposits that the Soviets first discovered, utilize the country’s transregional connectivity potential, and facilitate the Taliban’s anti-terrorist operations against ISIS-K.
10. Afghanistan Can Play A Pivotal Role In Eurasia’s Multipolar Integration
Last but not least, the restoration of Afghanistan’s independence after two decades of Western occupation enables it to play a pivotal role in Eurasia’s multipolar integration, though ties with its neighbors must improve before that happens. In that event, it can facilitate North-South trade between Russia/Central Asia and Pakistan/India and East-West trade between Iran and Central Asia/China.
As can be seen, while Afghanistan no longer functions as a US airbase in the Eurasian Heartland, it’s now a source of unconventional threats to the region after the Taliban returned to power via its hosting of the TTP, its controversial canal plans, and failure to defeat ISIS-K.
Nevertheless, Afghanistan has more geostrategic potential than ever before, but it must resolve these issues in order to capitalize upon this.
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