Donald Trump’s primary debate performances eight years ago turned a routine set piece of the presidential campaign into must-see television.
Now, his return to the forum that helped rocket him to the GOP nomination is far from certain.
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The Republican National Committee unveiled criteria for the debates on Friday that could keep Trump off the stage, principally by requiring participants to sign a pledge binding them to support whoever ultimately becomes the nominee.
The former president had not yet committed to joining the first RNC debate, let alone to supporting the winner of the primary next year. In one 2015 primary debate, Trump was memorably the only candidate on a packed stage to raise his hand when Fox News’s Bret Baier asked who among the rivals would consider not supporting the eventual nominee.
Beyond the question of the debate criteria, Trump’s campaign may not see value in submitting their candidate to a forum that equalizes competitors, at least structurally, when Trump maintains such a commanding lead over the rest of the field.
“I guess the incentive is that you show up on stage and let everyone know who the daddy is and who the kids are. But he may already feel like he’s got that going for him,” Scott Jennings, veteran GOP strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “I’ve imagined that some people will counsel him not to attend, but that he can’t resist an audience. His voters won’t punish him for anything.”
Trump enjoys a far more secure hold on the Republican Party now than he did at the beginning of 2016, when he skipped the final debate before the Iowa caucuses and later attributed his loss there to that decision.
But declining to engage in a serious discussion when the chief line of attack from his strongest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), is focused on his unseriousness could eat into his lead. DeSantis has become the most popular Trump alternative in part by arguing he has much more credibility on the policy issues that Trump’s supporters care about.
DeSantis would not be Trump’s only foil on a debate stage, however.
As many as a half dozen or more men and women could populate podiums in a forum that could offer opportunities for lesser-known candidates to shine.
“For DeSantis, I think the danger is not in being assailed by Trump but by the rest of the field,” Jennings said. “They know they have to get him out of the way to have any chance, so I’d expect the rest of the field to just pound DeSantis and basically leave Trump alone. Heck, some of them may even try to be Trump’s live press secretary while it’s going on.”
Republican primary debates offer an unparalleled opportunity for those lesser-known candidates to make their case in front of voters.
The first GOP primary debate in 2015, broadcast on Fox News, drew roughly 24 million viewers. It was the most-watched non-sports event in cable news history at the time.
Having only weeks earlier begun emerging as the front-runner in polls, Trump went into the debates in August 2015 with a much smaller advantage than he would enjoy if he took the stage this year.
The 2016 field was also uniquely crowded, requiring two rounds of debates separating candidates by polling thresholds. Many of the candidates were perceived, at the time, as being better qualified and of higher political stature than Trump; the real estate mogul was competing against three senators and current and former governors.
Trump’s name-calling and interruptions in the 2016 debates, therefore, felt, at least in the earliest rounds, like the spirited boxing of an underdog and newcomer.
This year, however, Trump would arrive on the debate stage with the most impressive resume of all the candidates. Only Trump has served as president, and only he can lay claim to starting the populist movement that now animates the GOP.
DeSantis has held his own in the debates for both of his gubernatorial campaigns, but the presidential stage would represent uncharted territory for him.
The Florida governor is known more for preparedness and policy knowledge than for creating the types of moments that stand out in a debate.
Some of his likely rivals, however, are skilled at that.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, for example, landed one of the most memorable blows of the 2016 primary debates when he seized on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) repetition of an identical talking point in back-to-back answers.
Christie is expected to enter the 2024 field next week.
Jennings said rivals should also not underestimate Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).
“The other person to watch here is Tim Scott, who is quite skillful and will stand out on this stage, I suspect,” Jennings said.
Fox News will broadcast the first RNC debate in August.
Networks are reportedly jockeying to host some of the remaining match-ups, although some of the candidates’ preferences could make the selection process difficult for the RNC.
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Trump has been highly critical of Fox since leaving office, claiming repeatedly in recent weeks that the network is misrepresenting his polling.
DeSantis is wary of participating in a debate on CNN or MSNBC, as skepticism of corporate media is a favorite topic of the Florida governor.
