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August 18, 2022

A new take on the November midterms has emerged: Democrats are marching to victory!  The Democrat base is newly energized following the Dobbs decision and recent legislative victories.  The GOP’s generic ballot lead has vanished, and, thanks to the January 6 (show) trials, independent voters are recoiling from the party of “domestic terrorism” and embracing the party that supported the Antifa and BLM riots.

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There are a few problems with this account.  To begin, President Biden is massively unpopular.  The public correctly views him as having failed dramatically: 

With Biden at the helm, voters also see their government comporting itself like a banana-republic dictatorship.  Federal law enforcement targets the regime’s political opponents, from the opposition party’s leader to ordinary citizens.  A corrupt Department of Justice ignores evidence of serious crimes committed by Biden’s son and defies federal law by refusing to protect Supreme Court justices from political intimidation.

This is the governance record that Democrats must defend in November.  It gets worse.

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The Democratic Party is out of step with the country on major cultural issues.  Their embrace of Critical Race Theory alienates 62% of Americans.  Their efforts to institutionalize unscientific faculty lounge fantasy gender theories — the application of which looks a lot like child abuse — is, likewise, political folly.

Far from riding high, the Democratic Party is limping to the November midterms and bleeding support from Hispanics, blacks, and young people.  It is no small thing for a party whose raison d’être is race/gender/gay/whatever minority grievance to lose minority support to the (supposed) party of white/male/hetero/whatever supremacy.  Democrats are in serious trouble come November.

How big a Republican victory?  

Do Democratic weaknesses portend a “red tsunami”?  Perhaps.  Democrats led in the generic ballot around this same time during the GOP wave years of 2010 and 2014.  In 1994, Democrats led until Election Day (where they were wiped out).  The current generic ballot tie is nothing to scoff at.

There are other reasons for Republican optimism:

The Senate map would look better without candidates like Mehmet Oz, but fortunately, candidate quality matters less in wave years.