PHOENIX — Sixteen months ahead of a major election in one of the nation’s premier battleground states, experts on both sides of the aisle agree on one thing: They have no idea how Arizona’s Senate race in 2024 is going to play out.
The race could feature incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who left her party to become an independent last year, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the progressive likely Democratic nominee who announced his run in January, and Kari Lake, a polarizing conservative who lost her election for governor last year. This all could ultimately result in a three-way race in a state that is 34% Republican, 34% independent, and 30% Democratic, according to Arizona’s data.
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Over the last couple of months, the race has been at a standstill. Sinema has not yet said if she is running for a second term. The only Republican in the race, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb announced his candidacy in April but is widely considered an underdog if he were to be in a Republican primary against Lake, who also has not made her intentions to run official. Gallego appears to be the only candidate actively campaigning, holding multiple monthly town halls across the state.
“Not much has really happened, and that’s because Lake has essentially frozen the field. We thought she was going to announce two-three weeks ago,” said Mike Noble, chief researcher at the independent Phoenix-based polling group Noble Predictive Insights.
Lake is currently on a nationwide book tour after releasing her memoir, Unafraid: Just Getting Started, on June 27. Insiders expect an announcement could come in the fall. The delay has left other potential Republican candidates in limbo as they wait to see what she decides. Former solar executive Jim Lamon, who lost in the GOP primary for Senate last year, has expressed interest in running if no viable challenger to Lake emerges. Blake Masters, the Republican candidate who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) last year, has also considered a run, but those close to him say he does not want to compete against Lake in a primary.
Lake was among one of the most vocal of last year’s Republican candidates who promoted former President Donald Trump’s claims to have won the 2020 election. After narrowly losing her bid for governor to Democrat Katie Hobbs, Lake continues to challenge the outcome in state court, claiming widespread irregularities. The Arizona Supreme Court has refused to hear most of Lake’s claims but sent one part of her challenge to court.
If Lake should decide to run, she’s signaling her messaging for a Senate campaign would be similar to her gubernatorial one.
“Yeah, it would be just like the general election. Rooting out election fraud is important to her,” said a senior adviser to Lake, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “There were plenty of other focuses in the governor’s race. It’s just the journalists always ask about election stuff because that’s the salacious stuff they like to talk about.”
Over the last few months, Lake has been meeting with donors. She’s made multiple trips to Washington, D.C., and has met twice with the National Republican Senate Committee. While many expect Lake to be the favorite for the nomination if she decides to run, her narrow loss in 2022 leaves some uncertainty about electability.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) recently indicated Republicans are still assessing the Arizona Senate race and voiced some hesitation about whether the GOP wants to invest resources. In an interview with CNN in May, he emphasized that Republicans will likely wait to see what happens in the primary before they decide to engage. Insiders say the NRSC recognizes Lake could be difficult to beat in a primary and don’t want to get involved in one so late in the cycle.
Advisers for Lake said no one from the party’s more establishment wing has attempted to discourage her from running for Senate.
“No one, actually, and I think that’s a little surprising,” the Lake adviser said. “I think the party is pretty unified behind Kari. She appeals to the establishment wing, the more MAGA wing.”
However, some experts think otherwise. In a three-way race, Noble believes Sinema could have a path to reelection depending on who becomes the Republican nominee.
“Sinema has no path if there’s a moderate Republican, but she definitely has a chance if it’s one of the hard-right ones like Lake,” Noble said. “It’s still a tough path, but she still has one, but with a moderate challenger, the numbers just aren’t there.”
Polling from Noble Predictive Insights released in February found that in a three-way race between Lake, Gallego, and Sinema, Gallego leads by 8 points. Gallego received 34% support, whereas 26% and 19% of respondents backed Lake and Sinema, respectively. A separate 21% said they were undecided or didn’t know. Noble said these results aren’t necessarily surprising, considering Gallego and Lake are more associated with their parties’ ideological flanks than centrists who have been successful statewide in Arizona.
“Democrats are united, Republicans are less united, and independents who have historically been leaning right have now been leaning left in the state, and that’s why you’re seeing that number,” Noble explained. “In that three-way, Democrats are like, yeah, Ruben, you’re not getting a lot of leakage. Basically Republicans, less consolidated, getting a little more leakage and of course those independents, leaning more left – that’s why Gallego is ahead in those matchups.”
Since Sinema’s victory in 2018, Arizona has transformed from a solid red state to one of the country’s most competitive battlegrounds. In 2020, President Joe Biden’s victory in the state over Trump helped him secure the White House. In December 2020, Arizona had two Democratic senators for the first time since 1952 after Kelly was sworn in. In 2022, Lake and three other Republicans running for major statewide offices lost. It was the first time Democrats held all major statewide positions since 1950.
Daniel Scarpinato, a Republican strategist who previously served as former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey‘s chief of staff, said Republicans in the state have a lot of work to do if they want to take back some of these state-wide offices.
“I think it used to be you win your primary and you win the general. I think that in many ways Republicans haven’t come to grips with the fact that that’s no longer true,” Scarpinato said. “Part of it is the messaging, but a lot of it is just general infrastructure. Democrats have been building campaign infrastructure, and I think particularly in 2022, they just ran circles around us.”
While Democrats have seen success in Arizona in recent years, the environment is far from solidly blue.
“We have not elected a Kari Lake. We have not elected a Blake Masters. We have elected rather a Joe Biden, than a Donald Trump in the last presidential election. Because of that, it’s hard to define where Arizona stands politically,” said Cesar Chavez, a former Democratic state lawmaker.
Chavez said while there’s uncertainty about the race across the board, he believes Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party is only to her benefit in a state like Arizona: “Having a pragmatist or moderate like Kyrsten Sinema in a race versus a Republican and a Democrat provides options.”
While Arizona’s senior senator has branded herself as an “independent voice” for the state, she could face some challenges in attracting support from Democrats and independents if she decides to run for reelection.
Gallego continues to be critical of the senator, claiming she’s beholden to lobbyists and business interests. At a town hall meeting in Peoria where Gallego was the keynote speaker last week, both registered Democrats and Independents voiced their concerns with Sinema in her first term.
“I worked to get Sinema elected, went door to door in the Arizona heat. I think she’s misrepresented herself. She’s inaccessible and said she supported things and then did not,” said Macy Evans, a registered independent who lives in Sun City West.
While some have voiced uncertainty about a progressive firebrand winning statewide in Arizona, Roy Herrera, a prominent Arizona election attorney, believes Gallego could be the candidate to thread the needle.
“Authenticity, I think, is what appeals to voters, and he’s got it,” Herrera said. “I think he’s going to be more open to answering questions, engaging with voters.
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Experts on both sides of the aisle still maintain it’s difficult to analyze such an unpredictable race with the potential incumbent running as a third-party candidate.
“Based on my experience in Arizona politics, it’s going to be an absolute dogfight,” said Joe LaBombard, a former Sinema aide. “It’s just one of those few states where every single statewide election in recent memory that’s at all competitive is decided by the huge number of voters in the state who reject both parties.”
