Top Democrats and allies of President Joe Biden are not voicing alarm about a potential presidential run from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), even as speculation about a possible challenge dominates the media landscape.
A number of Democratic lawmakers have warned against a Manchin bid after he announced his plans to canvas the country to gauge interest in building a “movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”
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Still, the Washington Examiner spoke with more than a half-dozen senior Democratic officials and operatives familiar with the president’s reelection campaign strategy, all of whom discounted the idea that Manchin running could hurt Biden’s chances of defeating former President Donald Trump in the 2024 general election, albeit for different reasons.
Manchin, who announced he would not seek reelection to the Senate earlier this month, has consistently played a legislative foil to the president over the past three years. He is closely associated with No Labels, a group vowing to place a Republican and Democrat together on a presidential ticket. Former Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, an avowed Trump critic, has been floated as another potential No Labels candidate.
Four Democratic campaign veterans told the Washington Examiner that they believe a Manchin unity ticket, whether that includes Hogan or other Republicans such as Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) or former Wyoming Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, would appeal more to Republicans disaffected by Trump’s behavior during and after his term in office, not to mention his nearly 100 federal indictments, than Democratic voters.
“Joe Manchin just isn’t simply where the base of the Democratic Party is today,” one operative explained. “His commitments to fossil fuels and opposition to abortion access put him much more in line with extreme MAGA Republicans than national Democrats, and voters know this.”
Democrats have consistently pointed to abortion as a top motivator for their base and even independent voters, and there is substantial evidence from the 2022 midterm elections and 2023 elections to back that claim.
Though Manchin initially voiced displeasure with the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned the federal abortion protections laid out in Roe v. Wade, he was one of a small subset of Democrats to oppose the subsequent congressional attempts to codify Roe into law.
He, alongside Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) and Roger Marshall (R-KS), co-sponsored a resolution this past spring to block the Biden administration’s abortion policy at the Department of Veterans Affairs.
“The VA’s current policy is a blatant violation of federal law,” Manchin said in a statement in April. “I always have and always will fight to maintain the commonsense protections we’ve had in place for decades to ensure federal tax dollars cannot be used to fund abortions.”
Manchin also joined Republicans in September to block a Biden Veterans Affairs nominee from advancing through the confirmation process in protest of the department’s abortion policy.
Furthermore, Democratic strategists have suggested that Manchin won’t actually end up running over fears of opposition research dumps regarding his financial and business links.
“He comes from a small state. He’ll get exposed,” Democratic strategist Steve Jarding told the Hill this week. “When either Trump or Biden see he’s hurting them more than the other side, they’ll take him down; they’ll go after him.”
But there’s also a belief among Democrats that, despite Manchin’s frequent squabbles with Biden and open interest in running, he won’t actually launch a campaign if there’s even a chance it helps Trump at Biden’s expense.
Manchin and Biden have a decadeslong relationship, which Biden was able to use to eventually get Manchin on board with his Inflation Reduction Act legislation last year, and the West Virginia Democrat previously claimed that a Trump win in 2024 would “end democracy as we know it.” Manchin also said in a CBS interview last week that he will not vote for Trump under any conditions.
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“Right now, OK, let me just say I could not vote for Donald Trump,” he stated. “I want President Biden. I would hope the changes would come. I would hope for that.”
Biden is already facing major pressure from two other independent candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, as well as a Democratic challenge from Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN).
