President Joe Biden is staring down the worst immigrant crisis in the history of the United States, a politically fraught situation that could have major ramifications on the 2024 general election.
Following his 2020 general election victory, Biden vowed to “restore humanity and American values to our immigration system,” but a record number of border encounters in December, stacked on top of a gradually worsening overall trend across his three years in office, has sent the president scrambling to reach a deal with Republican lawmakers.
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December saw the most-ever migrants encountered by border officials in a single day, 14,509 on Dec. 18 alone. Meanwhile, Fox News reported that, as of Dec. 29, the U.S. had recorded 276,000 migrant encounters for the final month of 2023, surpassing the record for most in a single month recorded in September 2023.
CBS similarly reported Sunday, New Year’s Eve, that the total number of migrant encounters for December would surpass 300,000, according to internal government data obtained by the network.
Furthermore, the latest Pew Research Center poll showed that people overwhelmingly disapprove of Biden’s handling of the immigration crisis. Just 32% of respondents said they were “very confident” in Biden’s decisions relating to the border, down from over 50% when he entered office. A similar poll authored by Harvard CAPS-Harris found 38% of registered voters approving of Biden’s handling of immigration, down 8 points from the month prior.
The White House has framed these conversations as necessary to secure another Ukrainian security drawdown and are not an acknowledgment of a need to shift the president’s overall immigration positions. Yet the president’s possible concessions on the matter, which reportedly include a revisitation of the Trump administration’s COVID-19 era expulsion policy, have drawn heavy criticism from immigration activists and members of the Democratic Party.
Republicans, and former President Donald Trump in particular, have escalated their rhetoric surrounding immigration as a means of hurting Biden’s chances at reelection.
In recent weeks, Trump has claimed that migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country” and vowed to shift federal law enforcement and military assets to policing the border.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) additionally urged the president before Christmas to use executive authority “to stem the record tide of illegal immigration” and blamed Biden for the record spike in border encounters.
Furthermore, Johnson will lead a delegation of GOP lawmakers to the border on Jan. 3 to meet with border officials and “discuss the failures of the Biden administration” to enforce border policy.
“America is experiencing the worst border crisis in our history, impacting every community in the country. While President Biden and Senate Democrats are asleep at the wheel, House Republicans will not cease in demanding transformative, immediate solutions to the madness,” he said in a statement ahead of the trip.
Still, if Republicans can reach across the aisle to secure immigration policy reforms, it could not only undermine the casting of blame on Biden for the border crisis but also saddle Republicans with additional baggage heading into 2024 should the reforms fail to reduce illegal immigration.
But Republican lawmakers indicated to the Washington Examiner that they are committed to reaching an immigration deal with the White House now that Biden is forced to the table, even if doing so could help him secure moderate or independent votes in November.
“There’s a reason this hasn’t been done in 30 years. Because it’s incredibly technical and difficult, in legal language, but it’s also politically difficult for Democrats who based their structure for a long time on open borders, and a large portion of their base is all about open borders, but that policy has created literally millions of people coming across unchecked,” Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), Republicans’ lead border negotiator, told the Washington Examiner in December. “This is not a political issue. It’s a turn to Washington, D.C.”
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) suggested that passing a bill that lacks immigration policy reforms backed by Republicans could “blow up” in Democrats’ and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) faces. Vance said House Republicans “can’t possibly pass” such a bill.
“When you’re passing landmark legislation, you have to be at least somewhat cognizant of what the other side is alluding to, and there’s been this weird attitude of we’re going to pass whatever we want to pass and hope that applies political pressure to the U.S. House,” Vance explained. “I just don’t think that’s a good way to actually do divided government, and I think there should be a lot more negotiation and a lot more honesty about how far apart the Senate and the House are.”
A third Republican senator also told the Washington Examiner that Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and Democrats expect Republicans to “crumble on border security” in exchange for Ukraine aid but that “some of the most vocal voices so far for securing the border” are “prominent Ukraine hawks.”
Three Democratic operatives, all familiar with Biden’s reelection campaign strategy, conceded to the Washington Examiner that Biden trading in a Title 42-styled deportation policy for additional Ukraine aid would certainly anger his base.
However, those same operatives noted that Biden continues to fight for a legal pathway to citizenship for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program recipients and other immigrants who have been in the country for a set period.
The matter was specifically raised during Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’s recent trip to Mexico, where they met with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and other Mexican officials to discuss northern migration.
Biden is also reportedly working to expand a program that fast-tracks work permits for immigrants who legally enter the country at ports of entry, according to USA Today. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services piloted the program in Brownsville, Texas, and recently expanded it to El Paso and San Ysidro, California.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat who has harshly criticized Biden’s immigration policies, praised the plan in September 2023.
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“Let them work! Give them the opportunity to contribute to our society,” he stated. “We’re saying we must expedite work visas. It’s just common sense. Thousands of jobs are available to be filled.”
Emily Jacobs and Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this report.
