President Joe Biden is set to deliver a speech in Philadelphia in which he will frame the midterm elections as “the continued battle for the soul of the nation,” echoing the tag line from his own 2020 campaign.
But it remains to be seen whether or not the incumbent president will seek reelection himself in two years, even though he seems all in based on the appearances he’ll make with congressional candidates in the coming weeks.
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“For God’s sake, whose side are you on? You can’t be pro-law enforcement and pro-insurrection,” Biden posited to voters in Wilkes-Barre on Tuesday. “You can’t be the party of law and order if you call the people who attacked the police on Jan. 6 patriots. … I want to say as clear as I can, there is no place in this country — no place for endangering the lives of law enforcement.”
That might be a preview of Biden’s midterm message, argues Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. Since the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid, the focus has shifted away from Biden and toward former nemesis Donald Trump and the former president’s antics.
Bannon says that’s a very good development for Democrats.
“In the last few months, the focus has shifted from Biden’s prospects for 2024 to Trump’s prospects for 2024,” Bannon said. “Basically, the Republican plan was to make this a referendum on Joe Biden. But things have changed. Dobbs was the first big factor to change the midterm environment, and the rise in Trump’s notoriety was another one.”
Biden’s approval ratings have also begun ticking up, from a low of 36% up to 42%, according to the RealClearPolitics average, which has led candidates like Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman and Ohio Senate candidate Tim Ryan to make appearances with him in the coming days.
It’s all a major contrast from Trump, who filed for reelection the day he took office and is still generally seen as a kingmaker within the Republican Party.
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A poll from July found that 64% of Democratic voters don’t want Biden to run again, including 94% of those under the age of 30. Biden’s saving grace? Trump again. Another poll found that 92% of Democrats would vote for the incumbent again if he runs against Trump, a fact the president was happy to point out when pressed about his reelection chances.
Republicans, for their part, are working to paint Biden as the extreme one whose party is dangerous to the nation.
“Often, politicians seek to moderate heading into an election: find consensus, tout bipartisan accomplishments, and reach independent voters,” Republican National Committee spokesman Nathan Brand wrote in a recent newsletter. “That is not so for Joe Biden, who has aligned himself with the most radical elements of the Democrat Party.”
Brand then called out Biden’s student loan gambit, “radical” climate change policies, beefed-up IRS, and branding of political opponents as “semifascists” as examples of the dangers the president poses to America.
For Democrats, midterm success could ultimately be a Catch-22 when it comes to Biden — the better they do in the midterm elections, the harder it will be for them to show him the door. And Biden, who first sought the presidency in 1987, may be eager to look for any signs that one more run would be in his favor.
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With lingering concerns about how much Democrats want Biden to run again, the uncertainty itself could work in the party’s favor as he makes the rounds on the midterm circuit.
“It does help that there’s some doubt,” Bannon said. “If Biden announces he’s running for reelection, that would concern some Democrats. But there’s no reason to do it anyway. It would be pointless to announce his reelection before the midterms.”
