It’s about the economy for President Joe Biden despite international developments roiling politics at home and abroad.
While the Hamas terrorist attacks and Israel’s declaration of war in response are taking up time on Biden’s private schedule, his public schedule has been about showcasing his economic achievements before Thursday’s publication of last month’s consumer price index report and next year’s election.
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The 2024 election will be decided by people considering “how to vote based on the issues that affect their daily lives,” according to a Republican strategist.
“Foreign policy may be a disqualifying issue for some voters, but the Biden White House smartly recognizes the public’s perception of the economy will be the deciding factor in the upcoming campaign,” the strategist told the Washington Examiner.
Whether that is good or bad depends on to whom you speak.
“With inflation coming down and unemployment at a record low, Biden sees the economy as a strength of his presidency,” Brookings Institution governance studies senior fellow Darrell West said. “He wants credit from voters for delivering jobs across the country. Employers say the economy is so good they are having difficulty finding workers.”
As economists have concerns about the pressure the labor market is putting on interest rates and prices, so too does the public about Biden’s economic management, rebranded “Bidenomics.” Biden’s average economic approval is roughly net negative 24 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics, with an average of 45% of respondents telling pollsters they think the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake agreed the economy will be the election’s No. 1 issue, particularly among “blue collar swing” voters.
“It is also an issue where Republicans and [former President Donald] Trump have a substantial advantage,” Lake said. “It’s an area where the president has substantial accomplishments, but voters don’t know what he’s done.”
“Consistent and steady messaging is essential to winning in 2024,” she added. “Democrats have never won the presidency when we were not tied or ahead on the economy.”
Presidential historian David Pietrusza contended all presidents run on the economy, “some just have better economies to run on at the crucial moment of reelection than others.”
“What Joe Biden’s economy may look like in October-November 2024, we can only guess,” Pietrusza said. “Right now, no matter what official statistics he may trot out, there remains a grave unease in the land. The person on the street knows there is something wrong and possesses no great confidence that it will get better.”
“Luckily for Biden, he still possesses one powerful number in his favor: ’45,'” he continued. “He may yet run against the 45th president, Donald Trump, and that might just be enough for the public to forgive or ignore all the other numbers.”
A Biden campaign source told the Washington Examiner the operation is not worried about economic polling since it is so early in the election cycle and, as the incumbent, the president has the time, money, and resources to make his case.
But as the world reels from Hamas’s brutal terrorist attacks and Israel bombards Gaza with retaliatory air strikes, the White House has been asked whether Biden’s economic message is discordant against the background of war.
“There’s always a lot of issues that we’re working on, and you’ve seen that throughout this week, not as a messaging tool for us, but we’re going to continue delivering domestically, even as we protect the American people in terms of national security interests,” a White House spokesman told the Washington Examiner. “There are a lot of hours and days she can and will continue to do both.”
Lake asserted Biden had demonstrated that he “can multitask”: “They have been as clear and forceful on international affairs, but they have rightly stayed focused on the economy as well.”
For West, foreign policy will be “a wild card” next election, with China, Israel, and Ukraine, having domestic political implications.
“There are many trouble spots around the world, and it is hard to know how they will affect voters,” he said. “Biden sees the good economy as a counter-weight to problems in foreign policy and border security.”
Biden hosted a White House Rose Garden event Wednesday to underscore how he is trying to lower prices by prohibiting hidden junk fees before meeting with CEOs Thursday about Bidenomics and delivering an address Friday in Philadelphia on the same subject.
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Biden additionally made an appearance Wednesday during a White House roundtable with Jewish community leaders after earlier confirming he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again.
“It matters that Americans see what’s happening,” he said. “I mean, I have been doing this a long time. I never really thought that I would see it and have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children.”
