'Soft' survey data has been a bloodbath this week with regional Fed surveys all slumping and this morning's Chicago PMI uglier than all expectations.
That smashed 'hope' - the spread between hard and soft data - back to cycle lows...
Source: Bloomberg
Today's Chicago PMI plunged to 41.4 - its lowest since May 2023 - from 44.0 (and well below the expected bounce to 46.0)...
Source: Bloomberg
That was below all analysts expectations for the second month in a row...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood was even more problematic:
-
New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
-
Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Supplier deliveries fell and a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Worse still, Prices paid rose again!
So, in summary: slower growth, declining production, shrinking orders, falling employment... and accelerating inflation - is it any wonder that 'soft survey' data is collapsing - not exactly election-winning headlines.
‘Soft’ survey data has been a bloodbath this week with regional Fed surveys all slumping and this morning’s Chicago PMI uglier than all expectations.
That smashed ‘hope’ – the spread between hard and soft data – back to cycle lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s Chicago PMI plunged to 41.4 – its lowest since May 2023 – from 44.0 (and well below the expected bounce to 46.0)…
Source: Bloomberg
That was below all analysts expectations for the second month in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood was even more problematic:
-
New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
-
Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Supplier deliveries fell and a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
-
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Worse still, Prices paid rose again!
So, in summary: slower growth, declining production, shrinking orders, falling employment… and accelerating inflation – is it any wonder that ‘soft survey’ data is collapsing – not exactly election-winning headlines.
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