President Joe Biden‘s 2024 reelection campaign was poised to be an echo of his 2020 bid, announced on its fourth anniversary.
But with Biden’s announcement video evoking similar imagery and messaging to his “battle for the soul of the nation” mantra, the 2024 cycle is shaping up to be a repeat of 2020, regardless of whether former President Donald Trump is the Republican nominee.
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Biden’s three-minute video, long in comparison to counterparts, begins with footage from Jan. 6 and a pro-abortion rights demonstration outside the Supreme Court before the president contends the 2024 election will be defined by whether “we have more freedom or less.”
“Every generation of Americans has faced a moment when they’ve had to defend democracy, stand up for our personal freedoms, and stand up for our right to vote and our civil rights,” he says. “This is ours. Let’s finish the job.”
That framing does not underscore Biden’s record, according to Republican strategist Doug Heye, drawing parallels between the video, 2020, and 2022, when the party outperformed expectations in the midterm cycle.
“Based on the video, Biden wants the campaign to be about Marjorie Taylor Greene and not the economy,” Heye told the Washington Examiner. “Given where his numbers are on the economy, not even attempting to connect with voters on their No. 1 issue is curious.”
The Republican National Committee amplified that criticism in multiple statements, even an artificial intelligence-generated response video, amid Biden’s average approval-disapproval rating of 43%-54%. The president’s average economic management approvals are lower at 38%-58%, per FiveThirtyEight.
“If voters let Biden ‘finish the job,’ inflation will continue to skyrocket, crime rates will rise, more fentanyl will cross our open borders, children will continue to be left behind, and American families will be worse off,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said.
Biden would prefer the 2024 election “to be a choice” “between himself and Trump” or another MAGA Republican standard-bearer, “not a referendum” on his first term, Republican strategist Alex Conant said.
“His message is not about winning the election 18 months from now,” he added. “He’s trying to unite and energize Democrats now in order to lay the groundwork for winning independents next year.”
But Democrats are confident their tactics will recreate their past success in 2024 despite polling indicating a lack of enthusiasm for another four years of Biden, especially considering his age and the prospect of a rematch between him and Trump.
Biden “reclaiming the mantle of freedom” from Republicans is “a smart move,” according to former President Barack Obama‘s White House principal deputy press secretary Eric Schultz.
“It also happens to drive the contrast with MAGA Republicans who want to strip away rights that we cherish, from voting to abortion,” he said. “If Republicans had any moderate or reasonable leaders of their party, this message probably won’t resonate as much, but sadly, they are making it easy for us.”
For Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, Biden’s video reminds the public of “the reason he ran in the first place” and starts his campaign on offense, although the White House reportedly will not have him stump any time soon, instead relying on advertisements.
“The Biden team is coming out being very aggressive,” Rosenberg said. “If part of the concern about Biden was was he going to have the fight and was he going to take it to the Republicans and to Trump, I think that’s been answered.”
Trump has an average 28 percentage point advantage over nearest Republican primary rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in early polls, 51% to 24%. Trump has a 1 percentage point edge over Biden in general election surveys, 44% to 43%, whereas DeSantis has a 2-point differential, 44% to 42%.
“How does [Trump] gain votes that the Republicans didn’t win in 2020 and 2022, running as an even more fiery MAGA Republican than even he was two years, three years ago, particularly given what happened in the battleground states in 2022?” Rosenberg went on. “The Democratic performance has been at the upper end of what was possible, and there’s no reason to believe that’s not going to happen again.”
Meanwhile, many Republicans have defended their party’s approach to abortion, for example, after the Supreme Court ruled that the abortion pill mifepristone could remain on the market, pending legal challenges.
“Americans have become increasingly skeptical of the federal government’s decisions on health and safety issues,” one Republican strategist said. “Republicans need to point out that the Biden [Food and Drug Administration] failed to review [the] safety of the abortion pill. It approved abortion drugs for political reasons, jeopardizing the health and safety of women and girls.”
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre did emphasize Biden’s achievements, though she mostly sidestepped 2024 questions by citing the Hatch Act, including whether the president would serve two full terms.
“When it comes to age, it’s the same thing that we heard in 2020,” she said. “If you look at what the president has done [these] past two years, he’s been able to deliver and get things done, right? Where Republicans are trying to, Republicans in Congress, Republicans on the other side of Pennsylvania [Avenue] are trying to pull us back, not move us forward.”
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While he may not appear on the campaign trail soon, Biden’s reelection announcement launches a fundraising effort before his first disclosure deadline on June 30, with his bid, managed by former White House aide Julie Chavez Rodriguez, expected to cost more than $1 billion.
“It’s Joe Biden,” the campaign texted supporters. “I’m officially running for reelection. If you’re with me, will you pitch in $20 to my campaign?”
