Photo Credit: Image: Fletcher via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.
Fletcher
The airline industry is beleaguered, to say the least. But it's possible that better days lie ahead.Twenty twenty-four was a tough year. We’re dealing with rising inflation, an immigration crisis, flash-mob shoplifting, and psychopaths setting people on fire while the specter of WWIII looms over us all. As if that weren’t enough, now there are a rising number of airline mishaps that may be attributed to inexperience, incompetence, negligence, or some combination thereof.
There were approximately 38 million commercial airline flights in 2024, and with that many flights, some accidents are bound to occur. But it’s disturbing to have an airliner door fall off mid-flight. Airlines responded properly by ordering safety investigations of their aircraft. When they did so, technicians found loose hardware on other doors.
In 2018 and 2019, two Boeing planes crashed due to defective flight control software that forced the planes into uncontrolled dives. Three hundred forty-six souls were lost in those two incidents. The company lost over $350 million in revenue as it came under scrutiny, and some employee whistleblowers have come forward offering testimony alleging questionable company practices.
It’s not just Boeing. Twenty twenty-four saw other serious aviation accidents. One hundred seventy-nine people recently died in a crash at Muan International Airport in South Korea. That plane landed safely after a bird strike but skidded off the runway into a wall, causing an explosion in which all but two passengers died. A Lufthansa pilot commented, “Normally, on an airport with a runway at the end, you don’t have a wall.”
There were also crashes in Kazakhstan, Tokyo, Singapore, and Brazil. Some were due to turbulence in the air or equipment malfunctions, whereas other accidents were caused by collisions with other planes while taxiing. Collisions on the tarmac and taxiways can result from pilot error as well as from faulty directions from air traffic controllers.
The industry is facing shortages of qualified personnel, one cause being that many pilots, mechanics, and air traffic controllers are reaching their retirement ages. Military recruitment shortfalls have resulted in fewer retiring military pilots applying for positions on the flight decks of commercial airliners. Filling these positions requires training new personnel, and that in turn requires significant investments of time and money. Pilot training in particular requires intensive education on the ground, in the air, and in simulators as well as testing and certification. The industry is rebounding after furloughs and job losses due to COVID-19 and is also growing due to more demand for passenger travel and freight deliveries.
The situation is expected to get worse. Industry analysts now expect global aviation to be short nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032 unless there’s a reduction in demand or an increase in the number of new pilots entering the profession.
Airlines are thus scrambling to find personnel to fill their vacancies. One solution has been to hire younger pilots from civilian flight programs. Military pilots accumulate a great deal of flight time before they enter commercial pilot positions. Not so with graduates from commercial flight schools. This lack of experience can prove fatal.
One study involving five fatal crashes found that half of the pilots involved had less than 1,000 hours of service in the model of aircraft involved in the accident. Sixty percent of them had been employed in their position for under two years, and almost thirty percent crashed in their first year of employment.
The FAA, under former mayor turned secretary of transportation Pete Butttigieg, announced a program to hire individuals with “severe intellectual disability” and “psychiatric disability.” No offense to the disabled, but those are not the sort of folks I want flying my plane, working on the engines and flight control systems, or directing air traffic. Aviation and mental illness don’t mix.
In March of 2015, the young co-pilot of a German airliner intentionally flew the plane into ground in the French Alps, killing himself and the other 149 people onboard. That’s not the first time that sort of thing has happened. There are reports of six similar cases.
Aviation is a stressful industry. Dealing with the general public is difficult enough, but add in the pressure that pilots face of navigating through turbulent weather, or that of air traffic controllers coordinating the movements of multiple aircraft, and you’re courting fatigue and burn-out. Attrition from these causes as well as from retirements are creating more vacancies than can be easily filled.
In addition to the anticipated pilot shortages, it has been estimated that there will be over 1,000 openings among air traffic controllers in the next ten years. The factors influencing pilot shortages are similarly affecting the pool of air traffic controllers; older and more experienced controllers are retiring while fewer young controllers are taking their places.
In a move typical of the left, the Obama-era FAA enacted hiring practices that excluded more qualified air traffic control candidates over those less qualified due to skin color. Now we’re seeing an increase in the number of accidents and near misses on the ground. There is currently at least one lawsuit in progress against this racially biased hiring practice.
Two hundred twenty-five flight students from seven collegiate flight programs participated in a study conducted by Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Fewer than half believed that airlines should artificially increase diversity among their pilots by creating new opportunities for women and non-white people. Nearly 80% believed that pilots should be hired based upon their aptitude and competency, not sex or race.
Lowering the bar for admission to a field requiring intelligence, talent, stability, and a commitment to ongoing training and re-certification is not something that instills confidence among the public who utilize those services. A better approach may be coming to the fore. Some airlines are implementing artificial intelligence (A.I.) in their operations in order to improve customer satisfaction, efficiency, and safety.
Boeing is using A.I. to monitor aircraft in flight and predict maintenance issues. This proactive, rather than reactive approach to maintenance can minimize out-of-service issues and increase reliability and hopefully mitigate in-flight equipment failures.
Airbus is using A.I. to optimize flight routes, reduce fuel consumption, and increase efficiency. Some airlines are using A.I. chatbots to help customers with bookings, flight changes, and general inquiries. A.I. is being utilized to track luggage and can provide real-time baggage locations, which reduces customer stress. It may one day offer dynamic pricing models, personalized travel assistants, real-time travel updates, and integration with ground transportation and hotel accommodations based on customer preferences.
In terms of alleviating personnel shortages, we’re at ground zero. Just as autonomous ground vehicles are in their infancy, autonomous aircraft piloted by A.I. are in the early planning stages. They could, however, revolutionize air travel — a shocking thought.
There were a mere 66 years between Orville Wright’s first flight of a powered aircraft and Neil Armstrong stepping onto the moon. Artificial intelligence has been in development for decades but has made great strides in the last two. It may be able to fill in some of the gaps for us.
This author would have to think long and hard before climbing into an autonomous automobile. Taking a flight in an A.I.-controlled aircraft might be something our children get accustomed to.
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Image: Fletcher via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.
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Image: Fletcher via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.