President Joe Biden may yet face a tougher-than-expected primary campaign before turning attention to his Republican rivals.
Biden has to date drawn two intraparty challengers, self-help guru Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Neither is considered a serious threat, but they’re drawing a surprising amount of support in early polling.
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“I’m just not tracking that,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told the Washington Examiner’s Christian Datoc when asked if Biden was annoyed or frustrated that Williamson had jumped into the race.
She then politely brushed off the campaign.
“If I had a — what is it called? — a little globe here, a crystal ball, then I could tell you. A Magic 8 Ball, whatever, if I could feel her aura,” Jean-Pierre continued. “But I just don’t have anything to share on that.”
Yet polling shows Biden faces a tougher challenge than Jean-Pierre’s response indicates. An April 27 Emerson College poll found that Biden had earned 70% support, with Kennedy drawing 21% and Williamson 8%.
By historical standards, those are exceptionally high numbers.
Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton all faced only token primary challengers, none of whom received more than 5.5% of the vote, and each of those presidents got a second term.
The primary challengers to George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter all saw primary challengers drawing double-digit support, and all lost their reelection bids.
Biden should be bolstered by the fact that neither Kennedy nor Williamson has ever held elected office before, and voters may not be familiar with them.
“My guess is with Kennedy, they are reacting to the name, and I doubt they know much about him or his anti-vaccine crusade,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “They hear Robert. F. Kennedy, and all they can see is Bobby Kennedy. The more they get to know him, I predict the numbers will start to go down.”
On the flip side, if little-known figures can draw 30% support away from Biden, that could signal an opening for a big-name challenger if one is interested.
Biden’s approval ratings have been stuck in the low 40s for well over a year, and the same Emerson poll found that just 37% of independents approved of the job he’s doing.
The president has alluded to his polling before. He often says in speeches, including at Saturday’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, “Don’t compare me to the Almighty; compare me to the alternative,” and for now, there is no serious alternative within the Democratic Party.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) could be the best-positioned Democrat to try and has targeted his red state counterparts on several occasions. Last year, Newsom launched a billboard campaign in red states advertising abortion in California. In a series of tweets at the time, he called out Republican Govs. Kristi Noem (SD), Greg Abbott (TX), Mike DeWine (OH), Eric Holcomb (IN), Tate Reeves (MS), Henry McMaster (SC), and Kevin Stitt (OK) for their “restrictive” abortion laws.
However, Newsom has expressed support for Biden’s 2024 campaign repeatedly and offered his support to the incumbent president.
There has been some buzz about former first lady Michelle Obama running, though she so far has not answered those overtures. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) has also seen his name mentioned and could flex plenty of financial muscle, but he, too, has repeatedly denied interest in running.
“I don’t think there’s anybody that’s serious that’s actually considering running against Joe Biden because he’s done such a good job,” Pritzker said in March.
Polls have consistently shown that most voters don’t necessarily see it that way, with a recent NBC News survey finding that only 26% of respondents wanted a second Biden term, compared to 70% who do not. But in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Biden narrowly leads former President Donald Trump 43% to 41%. The president may thus be content to sit back for now and let Republicans soak up negative headlines.
Biden also appears ready to skip out on primary debates, which is a common tactic for incumbents and something he shares in common with Trump.
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Still, some are calling for a bigger challenge to Biden as the Democratic flagship in 2024.
“I think folks should try to wrap their minds around the possibility that the left could benefit from a challenge to Biden even if the challenger doesn’t win the primary,” former Bernie Sanders spokeswoman Briahna Joy Gray tweeted April 28. “‘But they won’t win’ is not an argument against the value of a challenge.”
