Concerns about crime
once again failed to keep liberal candidates from prevailing this week, even as public sentiment turns more sharply against progressive criminal justice policies.
Brandon Johnson, a progressive Democrat who called for defunding the police in 2020, won the race to become Chicago’s next mayor by defeating Paul Vallas, a centrist Democrat who campaigned on fighting crime.
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Janet Protasiewicz, a Milwaukee County judge, succeeded
in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race on Tuesday and will soon tilt the ideological balance of the state’s high court to the left ahead of key cases.
Both victories represent fresh evidence that the issue of crime may not have the potency Republicans have for months hoped it could. The defeat of two tough-on-crime candidates echoed the disappointment Republicans felt when their public safety message didn’t carry them to expected wins in November.
Instead, in both races, the specter of abortion hung over two losing candidates who struggled to get off defense on an issue that has proven decisive in recent elections.
“It mobilizes a lot of more educated, middle- to higher-income voters who consider themselves independent,” Charles Lipson, political science professor emeritus at the University of Chicago, told the Washington Examiner. “It mobilizes them to vote Democratic.”
In Chicago, Vallas, a Democrat, faced criticism from his opponents throughout the primary and runoff for years-old comments about how he personally opposes abortion
because of his Greek Orthodox faith. While Vallas maintained that he would work as mayor to keep abortion accessible, Johnson used that data point in his overarching argument that Vallas was not actually a Democrat and thus unfit to lead the deeply Democratic city.
Johnson also used Vallas’s central message about the need to crack down on crime to hammer home that point.
And Vallas, a former school system executive, lacked the charisma and campaign organization that put Johnson over the top.
In Wisconsin, Daniel Kelly’s defeat in the state Supreme Court race followed some of the same struggles.
Protasiewicz, the liberal in the technically nonpartisan race, ran her campaign focused heavily on abortion and the likelihood that Wisconsin’s 19th-century abortion ban will come before the state’s highest court. She and outside groups supporting her hammered Kelly about abortion, and the Republican-backed candidate never found a way to challenge the way Protasiewicz defined his views on the issue.
Kelly attempted to portray Protasiewicz as dangerously soft on crime, using her rulings as a judge as fodder at a time when people across the country feel less safe.
But that simply did not capture voters in the way abortion did.
Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel acknowledged Wednesday that her party has a “messaging problem” on abortion.
“We can’t allow the Democrats to define Republicans and put millions of dollars up in lies and have it go unanswered,” McDaniel said on Fox News.
Many Democratic candidates in the midterm election and in more recent contests have found themselves on defense about crime because their party’s leaders haven’t totally shunned a lenient approach to crime that has lost popularity.
Lipson said Democrats don’t have enough buy-in throughout the party to move toward a tougher-on-crime consensus despite polling that shows the issue as a weakness for them.
“I think that until the leaders of the African American community, the political leaders really switch their position on this, it’s going to be very hard for the Democratic Party as a whole to switch positions,” he said.
Lipson noted that the last time Democrats got behind an aggressive overhaul of law enforcement policies came in 1994 when, under President Bill Clinton, many black leaders supported tougher measures and gave Democrats the ability to do so as well.
“The movement to what was then criminal justice reform, but which meant sort of tougher policing and the like, was led by the black community concerned about crack cocaine devastating the community,” Lipson said, noting that many of the leaders who supported the 1994 crime bill at the time have since renounced it.
Democrats’ recent performance in races in which crime was a central feature may suggest they don’t need to pivot.
And other factors worked against Republicans’ fortunes this week as well.
Kelly trailed Protasiewicz in both direct campaign contributions and outside spending
; the GOP-backed candidate spent roughly $2.2 million, while Protasiewicz spent roughly $12 million.
Kelly may not have been the Republicans’ best chance of landing the Supreme Court seat, either. He had already lost a bid for the seat in 2020 — and by a margin similar to the one he lost by on Tuesday.
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In both Chicago and Wisconsin, the focus on crime failed to draw money and drown out progressive priorities that, in an off-year election, ultimately motivated more voters to turn out.
Although there are signs of the national Democratic Party shifting away from a lenient approach to crime due to rising concerns, the failure of tough-on-crime candidates in more races could convince the party such a shift may not be needed.
